JimmyHua
04-22

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$

Let’s be real—SMCI’s recent chart looks like a theme park ride. Up 300%, down 25% in days, back up again… now what?

Here’s why I’m worried the risks are starting to pile up:

  1. Valuation’s in the stratosphere
    Even after the dip, it’s still trading like AI demand will go vertical forever. Any slowdown? Boom—P/E collapse.

  2. Supply chain strain
    SMCI isn’t Nvidia—it still relies heavily on server component vendors. Any hiccup in delivery = earnings risk.

  3. Retail crowd dominance
    Let’s be honest, a lot of this run was fueled by FOMO. That can vanish fast when sentiment flips.

My take?
I’m not shorting it (too dangerous), but I’m not jumping in here either. The air’s getting thin up here, and gravity’s real.

SMCI Roller Coaster: Are Risks Mounting?
Despite hitting a record $7.22B in quarterly revenue, Supermicro faces mounting risks—nearly 60% of its revenue comes from just two clients, 73% of receivables are under pressure, and a $150M financial gap needs fixing. Goldman Sachs’ latest report highlights valuation concerns. ----------------- As a shadow stock of Nvidia, which do you think is a better "buy the dip" opportunity—SMCI or Nvidia? Is SMCI's valuation reasonable? What is your target price for SMCI?
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