Signal Strength: Why I’m Sticking with Verizon’s Steady Dial Tone

orsiri
04-24

Connectivity meets cash flow in a sleek, signal-powered skyline

Verizon might not stir the soul like a sizzling AI stock or the latest quantum computing whiz-kid, but it does offer something increasingly rare in a jittery market: predictability. After its recent earnings wobble, the share price took a minor stumble—cue the market’s usual handwringing. But rather than panic, I see an income-friendly stalwart waving a giant 6.5% dividend flag and quietly muttering, ‘Keep calm and collect the cheque.’

Cash Flow That Doesn’t Flinch

Let’s start with the backbone of Verizon’s appeal: cash. In a world where many companies chase profits with the finesse of a headless chicken, Verizon churns out cash like clockwork. Free cash flow in Q1 2025 rose to $3.6 billion, up from $2.7 billion the year before—comfortably covering its dividend and then some. Cash flow from operations also increased to $7.8 billion from $7.1 billion. This isn’t just luck—it’s discipline.

The chart below tells the story better than a thousand earnings calls.

Steady cash, rising payouts—Verizon keeps the cheques coming

The dividend itself is more than just eye-catching. At 6.5%, it’s one of the most generous yields in large-cap land, yet management isn’t throwing money around willy-nilly. Verizon paid out $11.2 billion in dividends during 2024, and the quarterly dividend of $0.6775 per share remains unchanged in 2025. Payout growth has been modest but consistent—no flashy hikes, just the kind of reliable uptick that long-term income investors quietly adore. And unlike some high-yield traps, this one is underpinned by real operational strength, not financial sleight of hand.

In fact, $Verizon(VZ)$ generated $8.6 billion in excess free cash flow during 2024 after paying for both capex and dividends. That’s real leftover cash—not creative accounting.

Capital Spending with a Compass

Yes, Verizon spends a fair whack on network upgrades, spectrum licences, and fibre expansion. But this is investment with intent, not vanity spending. The $17.5–$18.5 billion earmarked for 2025 capex will fuel 5G deployment and fibre buildout—strategic manoeuvres to future-proof revenue and sharpen competitive edge.

Importantly, management hasn’t been caught in the growth-at-all-costs trap. They’ve targeted high-return geographies for fibre deployments and have resisted the urge to chase subscribers with unprofitable pricing wars. It’s a business model aimed at steady, sustainable returns—not headline-grabbing gambles. The result? Adjusted EBITDA rose to $12.6 billion in Q1 2025 (up from $12.1 billion), cash flows stay healthy, debt remains manageable, and dividends keep landing in shareholders’ accounts.

$Verizon(VZ)$ is also putting its cash muscle to use with the planned $20 billion all-cash acquisition of Frontier’s fibre assets, expected to close next year. Beyond enhancing network reach, the deal promises at least $500 million in annual cost savings. It’s the kind of quietly transformative move that adds both scale and efficiency without spooking the balance sheet.

Recession Resistance That’s More Than Skin Deep

Telecoms tend to get lumped into the 'defensive' basket—and for good reason. Most consumers will cling to mobile service before giving up coffee, streaming subscriptions, or dignity. But Verizon’s recession resistance is more than just broad-brush logic.

Its consumer wireless segment—where churn was just 1.13% in Q1 2025—continues to be the golden goose. Meanwhile, enterprise services are being repositioned, with particular attention to recession-resilient sectors like healthcare and government. Bundled offerings help create stickiness that’s hard to break. And with 339,000 broadband net additions in Q1, the strategy is clearly working. So, while not entirely bulletproof, the business has a fair few layers of kevlar.

A Quiet Fight Against Tech Disruption

Of course, this isn’t a business without challenges. The rise of platform-based communication—everything from WhatsApp to Teams—nibbles at the edges of traditional voice and messaging. And there’s always the looming spectre of someone outspending them in the race for network superiority.

But $Verizon(VZ)$ hasn’t been asleep at the switchboard. Strategic partnerships with content providers, bundling perks, and a growing toe dipped in IoT and edge computing show that it’s not stuck in 2008. More importantly, it’s executing with caution, not chasing tech trends like a wide-eyed teenager. The focus remains squarely on monetisable services, operational efficiency, and—yes, I’ll say it again—cash flow durability.

Debt: Big, but Not Scary

Let’s address the elephant on the balance sheet. Verizon’s debt pile is sizable—$117.3 billion in unsecured debt as of Q1 2025—but it’s well-structured, with long-term fixed rates and staggered maturities. Net unsecured debt stands at $115.1 billion, with interest coverage at a healthy 4.46x (up from 4.08x in Q1 2024). Net debt to adjusted EBITDA is also a manageable 2.3x. This isn’t debt strangling financial flexibility—it’s more like a heavy backpack on a sturdy hiker.

Frankly, I’m more reassured by their balance than concerned. This is not a company teetering on the edge. It’s more of a sturdy cruiser, occasionally criticised for being slow, but never in danger of capsizing.

Data-built resilience guiding investors through volatile market tides

A Smoother Ride in Stormy Markets

So, is now the time to buy? For those craving explosive capital gains, $Verizon(VZ)$ probably isn’t your jam. But if you’re after income certainty and ballast against the market’s more tempestuous elements, this is a rather elegant solution. Full-year 2025 guidance calls for adjusted EBITDA growth of up to 3.5%, free cash flow of $17.5–$18.5 billion, and adjusted EPS growth of up to 3.0%. That’s a steady drumbeat worth listening to.

It’s not exciting, but it’s dependable. And in a market filled with promises that rarely pan out, sometimes it’s the steady signal—not the loudest noise—that’s worth tuning into.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @Tiger_Earnings @TigerClub@ @TigerWire

💰 Stocks to watch today?(30 Apr)
1. What news/movements are worth noting in the market today? Any stocks to watch? 2. What trading opportunities are there? Do you have any plans? 🎁 Make a post here, everyone stands a chance to win Tiger coins!
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • Valerie Archibald
    04-25
    Valerie Archibald
    Hedge Funds know this is a big retail stock, so they try all of the tricks to get you to panic sale. Just hold and collect your 6.5% divy. VZ is as safe as they come. Safer then treasuries now! ;)
    • orsiri
      Haha yes! Hedge funds play checkers, we’re playing chess ♟️📶💸 Hold tight, divy’s calling!

  • Mortimer Arthur
    04-25
    Mortimer Arthur
    There should be investment money today. The big money funds wait a day after encouraging quarterly numbers. Low risk here.
    • orsiri
      Totally agree! 📈 Big money loves a fashionably late entrance 😄💰📞

  • Merle Ted
    04-27
    Merle Ted
    if it doesn’t go up during uncertainty it’s not worth owning
    • orsiri
      Steady beats flashy sometimes 📈📞💵—I’ll take my dividends and dance anyway! 🕺🎶
Leave a comment
6
1