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@Barcode：$PayPal(PYPL)$ 🚨🌏💥 $PYPL: Fighting to Stay Alive in a World That’s Moved On 💥🌍🚨 $PYPL’s flashing a brutal truth, this stock’s trapped in purgatory. That $90 rejection last month wasn’t just a blip, it was the market delivering a ruthless verdict. The numbers are still massive, billions flowing through PayPal’s pipes, but the market doesn’t care. It’s priced like a has-been, and I’m not touching it heading into earnings tomorrow. No position, no bias, just my unfiltered take. Seaport Research already put a knife in it, downgrading $PYPL to Sell with a $49 target. They’re calling out the obvious, PayPal’s 8–10 percent growth dream from investor day’s a fantasy. It’s not a tech titan anymore, it’s a weathervane for consumer pain, rising rates, tapped-out wallets, the works. But don’t sleep on this, PayPal’s clawing its way back, and it’s a messier fight than most realise. 📊 Let’s break it down: Q1-25 TPV hit $437.8B, up from $403.9B last quarter. Revenue climbed to $8.37B, up from $7.7B. Monthly active users ticked up to 229M. Margins are holding, GAAP EBIT at 17.2 percent, EBIT steady at 18 percent, net income margin at 13.4 percent. Solid, not sexy. The stock’s limping at $64.42, pinned under the 10-day moving average, with $67 to $68 resistance looming like a brick wall. MACD’s buried, momentum’s wrecked, and the 200-week average’s a distant memory. This is where growth stocks go to bleed out. But PayPal’s not just rolling over: Wind Checkout’s a legit weapon, 100 to 400 basis point conversion bumps, 95 percent biometric uptake, 40 percent faster transactions. Fastlane’s waking up dead accounts and pulling in new blood. Vaulted payments, now 57 percent of transactions, are crushing it. BNPL’s sitting at $33B and climbing fast. Then there’s PYUSD, their stablecoin play. Coinbase just gave it a 1:1 redemption nod, a bigger deal than most realise. If stablecoins become the backbone of B2B or micropayments, PayPal’s sitting on a goldmine analysts are too lazy to price in. 📰🚨 Now the bad news: Apple Pay’s creeping into PayPal’s turf, and it’s not just a Safari problem anymore. Migrating merchants to the new platform’s a slog, think years, not quarters. Even if Wind Checkout hits 80 percent coverage by 2027, it’s a grind, not a sprint. Cash flow’s perking up, but EPS and free cash flow per share are still trailing the pack. The turnaround’s real, but it’s moving at dial-up speed in a 5G world. That 13.6x P/E, dropping to 9.2x by 2028, is cheap for a reason, nobody trusts the execution. 🧠 Now let’s talk Adyen ($ADYEY) While PayPal’s rebuilding its engine mid-race, Adyen’s lapping the field. Their Intelligent Payment Routing shaves 26 percent off costs, boosts conversions by 22 basis points. Embedded finance and issuing are exploding, issuing volumes up 258 percent year-over-year. Black Friday? They handled 160,000 transactions a minute without flinching. Revenue’s up 23 percent in 2024, EBITDA margin’s at 53 percent, NPS at 66. Evercore’s “too cheap” call wasn’t hype, it was maths. Adyen’s not perfect. Growth can be choppy, and APAC and LATAM are long games. But their model’s built for chaos, regulatory storms, margin squeezes, you name it. When fintech gets ugly, Adyen doesn’t just survive, it thrives. 📈 The tale of the tape: • $PYPL’s priced like a utility drowning in molasses. • $ADYEY’s a growth machine with surgical precision. I’m calling $ADYEY a Strong Buy, its clarity and execution are unmatched. $PYPL? Still a Buy, but only for those with a cast-iron stomach and a decade to wait. The low multiple bakes in the pain, making it asymmetric if they pull off the turnaround. Big if. One curveball, Trump’s tariff threats are already spooking consumers. PayPal, tied to discretionary spending,’ll get hit hard and fast. Adyen, with its enterprise moat, barely blinks. Tomorrow’s earnings aren’t just about numbers. They’re a verdict on whether PayPal can outrun its own expiration date. If you’re holding, you better have a damn good reason. If you’re waiting for a green light, pack a lunch, it’s gonna be a while. 📢 Stick with me for the real stuff, setups that hit, trends that move, insights that win. I’m obsessed with finding the next big play and sharing what actually works. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those wins together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerPicks @TigerWire @Daily_Discussion Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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