How Trump Single-Handedly Awoke a Sleeping Dragon
When Donald Trump took office in 2017, America held the world’s AI crown. Giants like NVIDIA, Google, and Meta, fueled by U.S.-made chips and software, dominated the global tech scene, with China heavily reliant on American technology. But Trump’s aggressive move to choke China’s tech ambitions—starting with crippling sanctions on Huawei in 2019—lit a fuse that woke a sleeping dragon. By trying to keep China down, Trump inadvertently unleashed its drive for tech independence, undermining U.S. dominance and leaving allies caught in the crossfire.
Trump’s 2019 sanctions banned Huawei from U.S. chips and software, aiming to starve China’s tech growth and keep it dependent on America’s AI monopoly. Instead, it was a wake-up call. China, stung by the cutoff, launched a massive state-backed push to build its own tech empire. Companies like Huawei and SMIC rose to the challenge, creating AI chips like the Ascend 910C, now a rival to NVIDIA’s best. Startups like DeepSeek stunned the world with AI models matching Western ones, using less powerful chips optimized through ingenuity. Far from staying reliant, China’s now racing to surpass the U.S., powered by a domestic market that dwarfs most.
The fallout? America’s allies are paying the price. Trump’s sanctions set the stage for Biden’s AI Diffusion Rule, which caps chip exports even to friendly nations like India, Singapore, and Israel. These “Tier 2” countries, limited to just 50,000 NVIDIA H100 chips through 2027, face delays and shortages, especially as NVIDIA’s new Blackwell chips stumble with production issues. Frustrated, some allies are eyeing Huawei’s cheaper, available chips, loosening America’s grip on their loyalty. Trump’s China-first strategy has left friends feeling squeezed, pushing them toward the dragon he woke.
If Trump had played it differently—keeping China hooked on U.S. chips while tightening the screws quietly—China might still be tethered to America’s tech ecosystem. Instead, his sledgehammer approach gave China no choice but to forge its own path. The 2019 sanctions were China’s spark, and now the dragon’s wide awake, building a tech empire that challenges U.S. supremacy. Trump’s gamble cost America its unchallenged throne, fractured its alliances, and handed China the keys to rival its former master. The sleeping dragon is now a global force—and it’s not going back to sleep.
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