$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ is scheduled to announce these results for fiscal Q1 2026 on Thursday, 15 May 2025.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts, on average, expect Walmart to report an adjusted EPS of around $0.58. This would represent a slight decrease from the $0.60 per share reported in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year (Q1 FY2025). Some forecasts range between $0.57 and $0.59 per share.
Revenue: Revenue is anticipated to be approximately $164.58 billion, which would be about a 3% increase year-over-year. Some estimates go as high as $165.52 billion.
Walmart (WMT) Last Positive Earnings Saw Share Price Decline By 6.06%
Walmart had a positive earnings call on 20 Feb 2025 but the share price had declined by 6.06% since.
Walmart had a strong quarter with significant sales and profit growth, driven by e-commerce improvements, membership gains, and technology investments. Despite facing currency headwinds and SG&A expense pressures, the company increased dividends and announced PhonePe's IPO preparation. The sentiment is positive due to the strong financial performance and strategic advancements.
Walmart (WMT) Guidance
During Walmart's Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported robust metrics, showcasing strong business performance. Sales growth was 5.2%, while adjusted operating income rose by 9.4% in constant currency. Walmart U.S. saw low single-digit growth in general merchandise, and the company's global advertising business expanded by 27%, contributing to a total revenue increase of 5.6% for the fiscal year. E-commerce sales grew by 16% during the quarter, with Walmart U.S. achieving a 20% increase. The company's consolidated gross margin improved by 53 basis points, driven by inventory management and business mix optimization. Walmart also highlighted international growth, with sales up 5.7% in constant currency and strong performances in markets such as China and India.
The company announced plans for PhonePe's IPO in India and highlighted a 2.8% increase in inventory levels. For fiscal year 2026, Walmart projects a consolidated net sales growth of 3% to 4% and operating income growth of 3.5% to 5.5%, with adjusted EPS expected between $2.50 and $2.60.
Net Sales (Constant Currency): Walmart has guided for a net sales increase of 3.0% to 4.0%. This includes an approximate 100 basis point headwind from lapping the leap year and an approximate 15 basis point tailwind from the acquisition of VIZIO.
Adjusted Operating Income (Constant Currency): The company projects an increase of 0.5% to 2.0%. This includes a significant headwind of approximately 250 basis points from lapping the leap year and about a 70 basis point headwind from the VIZIO acquisition.
Adjusted EPS: Walmart's forecast for adjusted EPS is between $0.57 and $0.58, which includes an estimated $0.02 headwind from currency fluctuations.
Key Factors That Might Influence Walmart (WMT) Q1 2026 Earnings
Walmart reported sales growth of 5.2% and adjusted operating income increased by 9.4% in constant currency for the quarter.
Walmart's fintech business, PhonePe, is preparing for an IPO in India, marking a significant milestone.
Consumer Behavior and Spending Pressure: The retail landscape is seeing changing consumer behavior, with increased price sensitivity. Walmart anticipates continued pressure on its product mix, which could impact margins. The company is also observing increased week-to-week sales volatility.
E-commerce sales grew 20% in the U.S., with improved economics and a 20% reduction in net delivery cost per order.
Walmart expanded store-fulfilled delivery catchment areas to reach 93% of U.S. households, with more than 30% of orders for expedited delivery.
Currency exchange rates negatively impacted reported sales by $3.2 billion and EPS by $0.02.
SG&A expenses deleveraged by 46 basis points in the quarter due to tech investments, variable pay, and higher marketing and utilities costs.
Trade Tensions and Tariffs: The retail industry is sensitive to trade tensions and tariffs, particularly on goods imported from China. Investors will be looking for insights into how Walmart is managing this scenario. Walmart has stated it has experience managing tariffs and aims to keep prices low for consumers.
Transaction-related expenses for the VIZIO acquisition impacted the quarter and were not considered in guidance.
Digital Channels and Supply Chain: Walmart's focus on digital channels (e-commerce sales growth, Walmart Connect for digital advertising) and supply chain innovations (automation) are seen as key strengths and drivers of growth. The U.S. e-commerce operations are reportedly on track to become profitable.
Global membership income grew 21% to about $3.8 billion, with strong growth in Sam's Club and Walmart Plus memberships.
Walmart is investing in supply chain automation and AI tools, saving 4 million developer hours last year, and plans to expand these tools.
Full-Year Outlook: For the full fiscal year 2026, Walmart projects net sales growth of 3-4% and adjusted EPS between $2.50 and $2.60. Analysts, on average, expect full-year EPS around $2.60.
Walmart announced a 13% increase in dividends, the largest in over a decade, reflecting strong cash returns to shareholders.
Walmart (WMT) Price Target
Based on 38 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Walmart in the last 3 months. The average price target is $107.67 with a high forecast of $120.00 and a low forecast of $85.34. The average price target represents a 10.51% change from the last price of $97.43.
There are some analysts anticipate mixed results for the first three months of fiscal 2026.
Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Walmart's stock has shown significant growth in the past year, outperforming the S&P 500. Recent performance have also been stable, the bulls are in control which we are seeing increased momentum from the RSI.
Though the stock is trading sideway now because of the reignite of the tariffs fears, but as we see more and more updates from Trump administration as talks progress, we might see Walmart gaining from it soon.
There have been an increased short interest recently which could indicate investors waiting for opportunities to take profit once there is any upside on the share price. Investors are still concerned on the impact of tariffs on Walmart product and services, and we will need to see how Walmart could work out a strategy to change the supply chain from other less affected tariffs regions.
But do take note of any selling off that might occur if the tariffs turmoil worsen.
Summary
Investors will be closely watching the upcoming earnings release for details on sales trends, consumer demand, margin performance, the impact of inflation and economic conditions, and updates on the company's strategic initiatives, including e-commerce and the VIZIO integration.
Despite some caution for the immediate quarter, the overall analyst consensus on WMT stock is generally a "Strong Buy," with many analysts reaffirming positive outlooks, citing Walmart's ability to navigate challenges and its strategic initiatives.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Walmart would be able to navigate through the challenges and present a positive outlook for 2025.
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
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