Mig
05-12
wow 🤯 looks like a strong company to keep in the radar
thanks for sharing BC 🙂
@Barcode$Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ 🚨📊🌏 China’s Big Tech Awakens: $TCEHY Leads the AI Charge 🌏📊🚨 While Wall Street grabs headlines, the East is quietly staging a tech revolution. China’s giants are accelerating in AI, gaming, payments, and ecosystems, and Tencent ($TCEHY) stands tallest. Here’s the full scoop, with every edge verified and locked in. 🧠 Tencent Earnings Snapshot (Q1 2025 est. vs Q1 2024): • EPS: CNY 6.77 vs 5.26 (+28.7%) • Revenue: CNY 177.0B vs 159.5B (+11.0%) • EBIT: CNY 65.8B vs 58.6B (+12.3%) Tencent’s guidance reflects momentum from strong Q4 tailwinds. Profit attributable to equity holders in Q4 2024 surged 90 percent, and with ad spend and gaming rebounding, its monetisation flywheel is clearly regaining speed. 🧠 Segment Performance & Synergies: • Social Networks: +6 percent YoY from deeper integration with music and gaming • Domestic Games: Rebounding post-policy slump, bolstered by Dungeon & Fighter Mobile • International Games: Expanding via global titles like PUBG Mobile • Marketing Services: +20 percent YoY, driven by AI-enhanced Video Account ads • Tencent Music: 121M subs, 60 percent China share, 14.4 percent global, just behind Spotify’s 31.7 percent 🎮 AI, Gaming, Cloud ~ The Hunyuan Strategy: Tencent invested CNY 39B in Q4 alone, doubling its CAPEX YoY, focused on GPUs, AI servers, and cloud infrastructure. Its upgraded Hunyuan Turbo S model powers content generation, gaming NPCs, developer tools, and fintech. With WeChat and QQ as distribution hubs, Tencent uniquely controls the pipe, the platform, and the user. 💸 CAPEX Race vs Peers: • Tencent CAPEX-to-Revenue (2024): 14.5 percent • Baidu: 6.2 percent, Alibaba: 3.5 percent • ByteDance (2024): $20.6B AI spend • U.S. Giants: Microsoft $55.6B, Alphabet $52.5B, Meta $37.3B Tencent doesn’t match U.S. totals but delivers sharper returns per dollar. AI cloud revenue doubled in 2024, with spend focused on functionality, not moonshots. ⚙️ Margins, Profitability & Valuation: • Gross Margin: 49.2 percent vs Baidu (50.3 percent) and Alibaba (38.8 percent) • EBITDA Margin: 45.3 percent, nearly double Baidu and Alibaba • EV/EBITDA (NTM): 16.1x • Price/Free Cash Flow: 17.02x, historical peak was 39x in 2021 Operating Cash Flow: • 2024: $35.7B • 6-year CAGR: +16 percent from $14.6B in 2018 📈 Technicals, Options Flow & Short Interest: • Price: $63.28 USD • Resistance: $65, Support: $60 • Return since Dec 2024: +20.05 percent • Options: Call-heavy, limited downside bets • Short Interest: 0.84 percent, Short Ratio: 0.49, institutional sentiment is firmly bullish 🟢 Analyst Ratings & Upside Forecasts: • Rating: 100 % Buy • Target: $88.00, 26.01 percent upside • DCF Models: • Base Case: $92.10, 57 percent upside • Risk-Adjusted Scenario: $71.00, 21 percent upside • Forward PE: 16.22 (FY25), 15.05 (FY26) 🌐 Ecosystem Advantage: Tencent touches 98 percent of Chinese internet users. It owns the rails — from gaming to music, cloud to payments. This lets Tencent plug AI capabilities directly into every layer, from shopping recommendations to video content and fraud detection. 💡 Strategic Moves in Q1 2025: • WeChat Pay: +10 percent YoY holiday transactions • Ximalaya Acquisition: $2.4B deal to strengthen Tencent Music’s moat • Zhiyuan Robotics: Stake increase signals deep robotics push • $SOUN AI Partnership: Powering intelligent car cockpits • Hunyuan Open-Source Launch: Multimodal video tool with high subject fidelity ⚠️ Risks & Forward Scenarios to Monitor: • China’s macro drag: Real estate collapse, soft consumer CPI • ByteDance CAPEX: $20.6B may threaten Tencent’s ad market • DeepSeek’s low-cost model: Could challenge AI margins • Regulatory Overhang: Policy shifts remain unpredictable • Growth Slowdown Scenario (5 percent probability): Structural drift to 3 percent long-term revenue CAGR 📉 Relative Return Landscape (12M Total Return): • Alibaba: +105.3 % • Tencent: +94.5 % • JD.com: +69.3 % • Baidu: -1.5 % 🔍 Final Summary Tencent is more than just China’s tech giant, it’s becoming the backbone of AI-enabled digital life across gaming, media, payments, and cloud. Backed by strong Q1 momentum, rising cash flows, and a dominant platform ecosystem, the company is aggressively investing in AI infrastructure while remaining profitable and efficient. With CAPEX outpacing domestic peers, analyst targets forecasting up to 57 percent upside, and minimal bearish pressure in the market, Tencent stands as a compelling asymmetric play on China’s AI future. While macro and regulatory risks remain, its moat, monetisation engine, and AI integration strategy make it a stock to watch, and potentially own, through the next phase of digital dominance. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_Earnings @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerWire @TigerPicks @Daily_Discussion I would appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts. Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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