Tui Jude
05-13

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@Barcode：$Uber(UBER)$ 🚀🤖💥 $UBER Ascends: The Operating System of Urban Logistics 💥🤖🚀 Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) has launched into the 52-Week High Club at $87.01 as of 13May25, NZ Time. With a personal entry at $85.74, I’m sitting on a +1.48% unrealised gain, but this is far more than a swing. It’s a strategic re-entry into one of the most misunderstood tech transformations in the market. This isn’t about taxis, it’s about total urban integration! 📈 Market Context: Not Just Another High, A Structural Repricing The tape is bullish across sectors. $GRYP, $CTMX, $INHD, $ADT, $BCS, $MAG, $NRG, $BA, $APH, $SCHW, $GOGO, $MOS, $GE, and $MNST all just tagged 52-week highs. But $UBER stands apart. Its move isn’t momentum-driven, it’s a valuation reset. This is the market acknowledging Uber’s platform thesis, not just its top line. 📡 Autonomy, The Aggregator Advantage Uber isn’t wasting billions trying to out-AV Tesla or Waymo. Instead, it has become the interface, the connective tissue across autonomy platforms. With over 30 million daily rides and 2.8 billion trips per quarter, Uber is where riders already live. AV pilots are already live in Phoenix and Austin with Waymo, Cruise, WeRide, and Avride. The result? AV becomes a cost advantage, not a threat. Riders choose their preference, Uber earns either way, and driver costs gradually vanish without resistance. 📊 From Cash Furnace to FCF Flywheel This is the chart that silences the sceptics. From -$4.9 billion FCF in 2020 to +$5.96 billion in Q3 2024, Uber is now a full-scale cash-generating machine. Q1 2025 reinforces the pivot: • Free Cash Flow: $2.25 billion (+66% YoY) • Adjusted EBITDA: $1.9 billion (+35%) • ROIC is now greater than WACC for the first time This isn’t just growth. It’s profitable, margin-expanding, scale-levered growth. FinChat and Value Sense charts show ROIC climbing as capital efficiency inflects sharply higher. Uber has entered its monetisation era. 🚦 Options Flow, Institutions Aren’t Subtle Smart money is betting big. BlackBox flow reveals: • $410K sweep on 11/21/25 $105 calls • $315K sweep on 11/21/25 $110 calls • Consistent blocks at $86.00 to $86.21 These aren’t YOLOs, they’re macro bets on $UBER rerating into the $100+ club. 🧠 The Multi-Vertical Platform Flywheel Mobility: Core ride-sharing is still scaling, and AV only makes it stronger. Delivery: Uber Eats isn’t just food anymore. Grocery, alcohol, and retail deliveries create multiple layers of monetisation across a shared logistics backbone. Freight: Uber Freight is digitising a $1 trillion trucking sector. It’s still volatile, but one catalyst away from inflection. Fintech and Ads: Embedded wallets, debit cards, driver banking, and in-app ad monetisation are all accelerating. High-margin revenue is no longer hypothetical, it’s scaling. Each vertical deepens the moat. The more users do, the more they stay. The more they stay, the more Uber monetises without additional CAC. 🔮 Valuation, The Most Underappreciated Asymmetry in Big Tech • Forward P/E: ~25x versus 30x sector average • EV/EBITDA: ~18x, well below peers • FCF Yield: >6% Add optionality in AV, fintech, logistics, and ads, and the implied sum-of-the-parts lands between $120 and $130. That’s a conservative 2026 target assuming no margin expansion. 📌 Q1 2025 Segment Performance • Mobility: Gross bookings +20% constant currency, revenue +18% • Delivery: Gross bookings +18%, revenue +22% • Freight: Bookings and revenue -1% (short-term softness, long-term goldmine) Constant currency removes FX distortion. This is real organic growth. 🛑 Key Risks • Regulatory scrutiny (labour, data, antitrust) • Execution risk in Freight and fintech • AV platform disintermediation (e.g. Tesla direct-to-consumer model) • Economic downturn dampening demand Mitigation? Diversified verticals, global scale, high retention, and cost leverage. 📣 Final Verdict, $UBER Isn’t a Ride, It’s Infrastructure Uber is now a digitally native urban operating system. It monetises movement, optimises scale, and embeds itself deeper into daily life with every transaction. The vehicle doesn’t matter, the interface does. And Uber owns it. 🟢🟢 Strong Buy: 30% 🟢 Buy: 57% 🟠 Hold: 13% 🔴 Sell: 0% 🐂🐂🐂 Bulls are eyeing $90 as the floor, not the peak! 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @TigerWire @TigerStars @TigerPicks @Daily_Discussion
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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