$ON Semiconductor(ON)$ Stock P-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

$ON Semiconductor(ON)$

Stock Performance & Entry Point:

• Onsemi’s stock bottomed in late April 2025 and showed an attractive entry point in May.

• Though Q1 2025 results showed a 22% revenue contraction, they beat expectations and included raised guidance, suggesting growth to resume in 2026.

• The stock trades at 17x earnings (even lower on a forward basis) and offers an attractive risk-to-reward ratio.

Growth Drivers & Market Trends:

• Long-term growth is supported by key tailwinds: automotive tech, industrial digital tech, AI, and IoT.

• These sectors are expected to accelerate in the coming quarters despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, which are expected to dissipate over time.

Analyst & Institutional Sentiment:

• Analyst sentiment showed a steady decline in consensus price target but maintained a Hold rating with a bullish bias and 45% upside potential.

• The stock is bouncing from analysts’ low-end target range, implying a potential bottom.

• Q1 results and Q2 guidance may lead to price target increases, serving as a potential catalyst for a rebound.

• Institutional activity: Net selling in Q1, but resumed buying in early Q2, supporting the bottom thesis.

Q1 2025 Performance:

• Revenue declined across all segments:

• PSG: -26%

• ISG: -20%

• AMG: -19%

• Margins were significantly impacted, but:

• Cash from operations was $602M (>40% of revenue).

• Free cash flow (FCF) increased 70% to $455M.

• Over 60% of FCF used for share buybacks.

• Q1 share repurchases reduced count by 1.9% QoQ, 3.5% YoY.

Outlook & Guidance:

• Q2 2025 guidance: $1.45B in revenue (flat QoQ), with contraction slowing to 16%.

• CEO notes critical wins across all markets and indicates that positioning efforts are yielding results.

Financial Position & Shareholder Value:

• Equity down 1.6% in Q1 due to divestitures, repositioning, and buybacks.

• Nonetheless, low leverage, improving cash flows, and declining share count enhance investor value.

• Capital returns expected to remain sustainable, and investor leverage should build as business recovers.

@Tiger_comments @TigerCommunity @TigerWire @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @TigerEvents

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Growth Drivers & Market Trends: • Long-term growth is supported by key tailwinds: automotive tech, industrial digital tech, AI, and IoT. • These sectors are expected to accelerate in the coming quarters despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, which are expected to dissipate over time. Analyst & Institutional Sentiment: • Analyst sentiment showed a steady decline in consensus price target but maintained a Hold rating with a bullish bias and 45% upside potential. • The stock is bouncing from analysts’ low-end target range, implying a potential bottom. • Q1 results and Q2 guidance may lead to price target increases, serving as a potential catalyst for a rebound. • Institutional activity: Net selling in Q1, but resumed buying in early Q2, supporting the bottom thesis. 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