NVIDIA vs. AMD: Which Stock Will Ride the Saudi AI Wave Higher?

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$

The AI revolution just got a Middle Eastern twist, with Saudi Arabia’s Humain partnering with NVIDIA and AMD to build cutting-edge AI factories. NVIDIA’s supplying 18,000 of its Blackwell chips for a 500-megawatt data center, while AMD’s committing $10 billion to deliver high-performance chips and software for a sprawling network across Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Both stocks surged—NVIDIA up 6.4% and AMD up 4%—but which one’s got the edge in this $10 billion AI gold rush? Are you kicking yourself for selling NVIDIA at $120? Let’s break it down and pick a winner.

The Saudi AI Boom: A $10 Billion Bet

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) is pouring billions into AI through Humain, aiming to make the Kingdom a global tech hub by 2030. NVIDIA’s deal kicks off with 18,000 Blackwell GPUs, with plans for “several hundred thousand” over five years, powering a 500-megawatt AI factory. AMD’s $10 billion collaboration will deploy 500 megawatts of AI compute capacity, blending chips and software to create a transcontinental data center network. These partnerships, announced on May 13, 2025, at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh, are part of a $600 billion U.S.-Saudi investment wave, with Trump’s administration easing tech export rules to make it happen Nvidia, AMD Sell Chips.

This isn’t just a one-off—Saudi Arabia’s energy wealth and Vision 2030 make it a prime spot for AI infrastructure. Both NVIDIA and AMD are riding this wave, but their paths to profit diverge.

NVIDIA: The AI Juggernaut

NVIDIA’s grip on the AI chip market is ironclad, with an 80% share of high-end GPUs, per TrendForce. The Saudi deal—starting with 18,000 Blackwell chips—reinforces its dominance. CEO Jensen Huang called it an “AI factory,” and the market agrees, pushing NVIDIA’s stock to $965, a 6.4% jump post-announcement. With a $3 trillion market cap and a forward P/E of 32, NVIDIA’s priced for perfection, but its CUDA ecosystem and developer lock-in make it hard to bet against.

Why NVIDIA Shines

• Scale Advantage: The initial 18,000-chip order, with hundreds of thousands more planned, could add billions to NVIDIA’s data center revenue, already $26.3 billion last quarter Nvidia vs. AMD.

• Market Lead: NVIDIA’s 80% AI chip share dwarfs AMD’s, and its software moat (CUDA) keeps competitors at bay.

• Global Reach: Beyond Saudi, NVIDIA’s deals in India and Japan show it’s not slowing down HUMAIN and NVIDIA.

The Catch

NVIDIA’s valuation is sky-high—its $3 trillion market cap means even big wins might not move the needle much. Tariff risks, like a potential $5.5 billion Q1 hit from U.S.-China curbs, could also dent sentiment What AMD's Earnings.

AMD: The Hungry Challenger

AMD’s $10 billion deal with Humain is a bold step to chip away at NVIDIA’s lead. Supplying chips and software for a transcontinental AI network, AMD’s MI300X is gaining traction as a cost-effective alternative to NVIDIA’s GPUs. The stock’s up 22% year-to-date at $155, with a forward P/E of 25—cheaper than NVIDIA’s 32. This deal could help AMD double its data center revenue, which hit $2.8 billion last quarter, up 115% year-over-year Nvidia vs. AMD.

Why AMD Could Surge

• Value Play: A $250 billion market cap and lower P/E give AMD more room to grow than NVIDIA’s $3 trillion behemoth.

• Market Share Grab: The MI300X’s competitive pricing could win over cost-conscious buyers, especially in emerging markets like Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Unveils.

• Software Push: AMD’s software support in this deal signals a broader ecosystem play, narrowing NVIDIA’s lead AMD and HUMAIN.

The Risk

AMD’s still the underdog, with a smaller AI footprint. If the MI300X underperforms or NVIDIA’s Blackwell chips dominate, AMD’s gains could stall. Tariff curbs, like the $1.5 billion hit AMD expects in 2025, also loom What AMD's Earnings.

Regret Selling at $120?

If you sold NVIDIA at $120, the sting is real—its climb to $965 is an 800% gain. But don’t beat yourself up. Back then, trade fears and market volatility made selling a rational move. The lesson? Focus on today’s opportunities. NVIDIA’s still a powerhouse, but AMD’s lower entry point might offer better bang for your buck.

Which Stock Has More Upside?

AMD gets my vote for bigger upside. Its $250 billion market cap and 25 P/E leave room for growth, especially if the MI300X gains traction in Saudi Arabia. NVIDIA’s a safer bet with its 80% market share and ecosystem lock, but its $3 trillion valuation caps explosive returns. I’d buy AMD at $155, targeting $180-$200 by year-end, and hold NVIDIA for steady gains toward $1,050.

Trading Strategy

• AMD: Buy at $155, stop at $145, target $180. The Saudi deal could spark a 15-20% rally if earnings confirm AI traction.

• NVIDIA: Buy at $965, stop at $940, target $1,050. It’s a momentum play, but watch for tariff news.

• Risk Hedge: Keep 20% cash to scoop up dips if trade talks falter.

Stock Comparison Table

Charting the Surge

The Verdict: AMD’s Got the Edge

The Saudi AI factory is a blockbuster for both NVIDIA and AMD, but AMD’s lower valuation and growth potential make it the better buy for upside. NVIDIA’s a steady giant, but its price tag limits big pops. Don’t regret the $120 sell—focus on today’s play. AMD’s my pick to outshine, but both are worth a look. What’s your bet—NVIDIA’s dominance or AMD’s breakout? Share your thoughts below!

Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Markets are volatile—invest wisely.

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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