🎁What the Tigers Say | UNH Rallies After CEO Buy: Time to Buy or Sell?

After a brutal selloff, UnitedHealth shares staged a three-day rally, climbing to $321.58. The bounce followed CEO Stephen Hemsley's $25 million stock purchase—86,700 shares at $288.57 each—disclosed in a Friday SEC filing.

Is this a sign the bottom is in?

Would you buy, hold, or sell at $300?

Could UNH be on its way back to $400?

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Click titles to read the full analysis:

1. @yourcelesttyy:

Key Points:

UNH’s turmoil isn’t just a company story—it’s a bellwether for the healthcare sector:

• Insider Confidence: Hemsley’s purchase, combined with CFO and other executive buying, signals that leadership believes the stock is oversold. Hemsley’s track record, leading UNH to massive growth from 2006 to 2017, adds weight to this move

• Valuation Appeal: At a forward P/E of 13x, UNH is significantly undervalued compared to its historical 18x and peers like Cigna (16x). Analysts’ average price target of $523.52 implies 63% upside from $321.66.

• Sector Headwinds: The DOJ probe and PBM reforms could ripple across healthcare, impacting peers like Humana and CVS Health. Rising medical costs and regulatory scrutiny are testing UNH’s vertically integrated model

• Long-Term Strength: UNH remains the largest U.S. health insurer, with $400 billion in annual revenue and a dominant Medicare Advantage business. An aging U.S. population (18.6% over 65 in 2025, rising to 20.7% by 2030) supports its growth potential .

The rally reflects hope, but the risks—legal, operational, and regulatory—could keep volatility high.

UNH’s three-day rally to $321.66, sparked by CEO Stephen Hemsley’s $25 million share purchase, suggests the stock may have hit a bottom after its 50%+ year-to-date plunge. The evidence leans toward $300–$320 being a compelling entry point for long-term investors, given UNH’s undervaluation at a 13x forward P/E and analyst targets averaging $523.52, implying 63% upside. Hemsley’s proven track record and insider buying bolster confidence, while UNH’s scale as the largest U.S. health insurer supports a potential rebound to $400 within 6–12 months if it navigates regulatory and cost challenges.

2. @WeLian:

Key Points:

What a good chance to buy at $220.

3. @jethro:

Key Points:

The decision to buy UNH now or wait hinges on your risk tolerance and investment horizon. Here’s a breakdown of key factors to consider:

1. Analyst Sentiment: Strong Buy with Upside Potential

Analysts overwhelmingly rate UNH as a Strong Buy, with a 12-month average price target of $638.26 (36% upside from current levels). Key bullish arguments include:

- Undervaluation: Trading below historical averages (P/S ratio of 1.09 vs. sector median).

- Growth Prospects: Expected 12.7% annual EPS growth over the next five years, driven by Optum’s expansion and Medicare Advantage enrollment .

- Insider Confidence: Recent CEO and director share purchases ($25M+) signal internal optimism .

2. DOJ Investigation: The Critical Unknown

The ongoing DOJ probe into Medicare Advantage billing practices creates significant short-term uncertainty:

- Potential Penalties: Fines (up to billions), exclusion from Medicare, or operational restrictions could materially impact earnings .

- Timeline Risk: Investigations of this scale often take 12–24 months to resolve, with no clarity on outcomes yet.

While UNH’s size and diversification mitigate existential risks, the stock could remain volatile until the investigation concludes

3. Buy-the-Dip Strategy: Pros and Cons

Buy Now:

- Upside Capture: If the DOJ case resolves favorably, UNH could rebound sharply (analysts project 30%+ upside). Delaying might mean missing the bottom.

- Dividend Safety: UNH’s 1.6% yield is supported by strong cash flow ($23B+ annual operating cash flow) .

Wait for Clarity:

- Avoid Downside: A negative DOJ outcome could trigger further declines (e.g., 15–20% drop if fines exceed expectations).

- Technical Weakness: The stock remains below its 200-day moving average (~$510), signaling bearish momentum .

4. Verdict: A Cautious Approach

For risk-tolerant investors:

- Dollar-Cost Average (DCA): Start a small position now (e.g., 25–50% of intended allocation) and add on dips below $450. This balances upside participation with risk management.

- Focus on Long-Term: UNH’s dominant market position and aging demographics support multi-year growth beyond near-term legal risks.

For risk-averse investors:

- Wait for DOJ Updates: Monitor for settlement rumors or procedural milestones. A resolution (even with fines) could remove uncertainty and spark a rally.

Either way, limit UNH to 5–10% of your portfolio given the asymmetric risk/reward profile.

4. @LohYK:

Key Points:

$UNH 20260320 400.0 PUT$  rolled my 400 put after the fraud incident. Glad tht the shares are recovering.

5. @Tothemoooooonnnnn:

Key Points:

Adding portfolio into UNH among the red seas. The current share price is half of it peak, and with insider confident , definitely a stock to watch!

6. @AN88:

Key Points:

Yes but be careful. Fundamentals finance is important plus govt regulations.

7. @LiverpoolRed:

Key Points:

SELL $UNH PUT US20250523 282.5

Selling put option to earn premium and intend to buy this share.

8. @Shyon:

Key Points:

Another question I am grappling with is whether I would buy or sell UNH at $300. Given that the stock was purchased at $288.57, a rise to $300 would represent a modest gain. If UNH reaches $300, I think I would hold onto my shares rather than sell, as I believe there could be more upside potential, especially if the stock is indeed on a path to recovery. However, I would also set a stop-loss order just below $288 to protect myself from any unexpected downturns. My strategy here is to balance the potential for gains with the need to manage risk, especially in a stock that has experienced recent volatility.

I am also pondering whether UNH is on its way back to $400, a price level it has seen in the past. While the CEO's purchase is a positive signal, I am not entirely convinced that UNH will reach $400 in the near term. The stock would need to rise significantly from its current level, and that kind of recovery would likely depend on broader market conditions, the company's upcoming earnings reports, and any shifts in the healthcare sector. For now, I think a more realistic target might be around $350, and I would reassess my position if the stock approaches that level. I am cautiously optimistic but want to temper my expectations with a dose of realism.

Questions for you:

Would you buy, hold, or sell at $300?

Could UNH be on its way back to $400?

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⏰Duration

• 28 May (24pm EDT)