$Tempus AI(TEM)$ Where Data-Rich Precision Medicine Meets Scalable AI
Source: Tempus AI Q1 Investor Presentation: Summary
Tempus AI is a Chicago-based health-tech company on a mission to make every cancer diagnosis—and eventually every serious disease—an algorithmically informed decision. The firm combines high-throughput genomic testing with one of the world’s largest, fully-consented clinical-outcomes databases. By structuring 40-plus million patient records into a searchable, machine-learning platform, Tempus gives oncologists and drug developers real-time insight into which therapies work, why they work, and for whom.
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Dual-engine model – Tempus runs CLIA-certified labs that process hundreds of thousands of DNA/RNA samples a year, generating steady service revenue and continuously feeding its multimodal data cloud.
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AI at the point of care – The company’s Lens™ software plugs into hospital EMRs, returning treatment recommendations and clinical-trial matches in hours rather than weeks.
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Pharma partnerships – With clients such as AstraZeneca, BioNTech, and Pathos, Tempus licenses de-identified data, co-develops companion diagnostics, and builds custom foundation models that accelerate drug discovery.
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Scalable economics – Each new test enriches the data lake, widening the moat while driving high-margin analytics revenue—an “airline-plus-AWS” flywheel unique in precision medicine.
In short, Tempus aims to do for healthcare what Bloomberg did for finance: turn disparate, slow-moving data into an always-on decision engine, priced as a must-have subscription for both clinicians and biopharma innovators.
Lets deep dive shall we:
1. Quarter in one line
Tempus just printed a 75 % headline revenue jump—and only ~⅓ of that was organic. The Ambry Genetics tuck-in plus a fresh $200 m AstraZeneca work-order propelled backlog past the $1 billion mark, but the core oncology engine actually stepped sideways versus Q4.
2. Breaking down the numbers
TEM Q1 Results in a nutshell
3. Competitive moat
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Scale: 1.5 m matched genomic/clinical cases—bigger than Flatiron + Guardant combined.
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Integration: owns wet-lab, cloud, analytics, and patient-engagement app (Olivia) end-to-end.
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Regulatory wall: 250 + accreditations and FedRAMP cloud credentials—multi-year effort for any newcomer.
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Partnership lock-ins: joint assay kit with Illumina, multimodal AI deals with AstraZeneca & BioNTech, SoftBank JV for Japan.
4.What’s firing
▪︎ Ambry turbo-boost Only eight weeks of Ambry flowed into Q1, yet the hereditary platform already prints >$90 m ARR. Integration synergies—shared sequencing infrastructure & joint payor contracting—should lift Ambry’s 2025 gross margin from mid-40 s to >50 %.
▪︎ AstraZeneca keeps re-upping A new $200 m order (co-developing a multimodal oncology foundation model with Pathos) pushed total contracted value >$1 bn. Big-pharma endorsement is a soft-moat Tempus can parlay into other CDx deals.
▪︎ Oncology ASP trend still up Every quarter more samples migrate to xT CDx (ADLT price $4,500 vs. prior $1,590 ASP). Management targets >50 % of legacy tests on xT by FY-26—each 100 bp mix shift adds ~60 bp to blended gross margin.
5. The soft spots
Issues to Monitor @Tempus AI
6. Refreshed unit-economics & 2025 guide
7. Valuation refresh
8. Technical pulse (daily chart)
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Shares reversed off a six-month down-trend line (~$80 in March → ~$70 now).
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Rising 200-day MA ($52) & horizontal support band ($44–46) still intact.
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Volume: post-short-report sell-off (May 28) saw 10× normal turnover, but bulls absorbed it above $50.*
In short, $60–$63 is the new pivot; bulls need a clean breakout >$70 to resume February momentum.
8. Updated price map
9. Bottom line
What’s changed? Ambry is beating, AstraZeneca keeps buying, and reported growth will scream “+80 %” all year. What hasn’t? OpEx is still outsized and FCF break-even sits in 2027-plus territory.
For existing holders:
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Stay long but trim >$70 unless EBITDA run-rate turns solidly positive.
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Monitor Q2 (late-July)—core revenue must re-accelerate and cost ratio dip below 80 % to validate the bullish curve.
For new money:
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Treat TEM as an option-like 0.5 %–1 % bet on AI oncology.
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Your risk-control line = $45 (multi-month support).
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Upside trigger = management lifts FY-25 EBITDA guide materially above $5 m or announces another big-pharma data-model deal.
The company is firing on all cylinders–but the tank still leaks cash. Size accordingly.
DISCLAIMER: Author’s estimates. No part of this article constitutes investment advice. Always do your own due diligence.
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