๐ What's Behind the Fall
LULU just cut its full-year guidance, blaming a โdynamic macroenvironment.โ Shares dropped 23%, adding to the retail bloodbath โ GAP fell 20% last week, and Skechers is delisting. Tariff risks are also rising, especially for brands sourcing from China or Vietnam.
๐ The Bigger Picture
Despite the miss, Lululemon still boasts one of the strongest brand moats in athleisure. Its gross margin (~55%) and loyal customer base rival luxury, not just sportswear. But the marketโs punishing anything that hints at margin pressure or demand softness.
๐ My Strategy
LULU under $300 is starting to look attractive on a 2025 PE basis
I'm not rushing in yet โ want to see how Q2 margins hold and how tariffs evolve
Might start with a buy-the-product, watch-the-stock approach โ use the product as a feeler, the chart as a trigger
๐ For long-term holders: this may be a 12โ18 month value re-entry zone if LULU can reaccelerate through international and men's wear lines.
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