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06-07

๐Ÿ“ What's Behind the Fall

LULU just cut its full-year guidance, blaming a โ€œdynamic macroenvironment.โ€ Shares dropped 23%, adding to the retail bloodbath โ€” GAP fell 20% last week, and Skechers is delisting. Tariff risks are also rising, especially for brands sourcing from China or Vietnam.

๐Ÿ“ The Bigger Picture

Despite the miss, Lululemon still boasts one of the strongest brand moats in athleisure. Its gross margin (~55%) and loyal customer base rival luxury, not just sportswear. But the marketโ€™s punishing anything that hints at margin pressure or demand softness.

๐Ÿ“ My Strategy

LULU under $300 is starting to look attractive on a 2025 PE basis

I'm not rushing in yet โ€” want to see how Q2 margins hold and how tariffs evolve

Might start with a buy-the-product, watch-the-stock approach โ€” use the product as a feeler, the chart as a trigger

๐Ÿ“Œ For long-term holders: this may be a 12โ€“18 month value re-entry zone if LULU can reaccelerate through international and men's wear lines.

Lulu Drops for 3 Quarters: Back to 2020 Lows - Buy the Dip?
Lululemon plunged again as it slashes earnings outlook, projects $240 million tariff hit. Lululemon topped second-quarter earnings estimates but slightly missed revenue expectations. The company said the effect of tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exception are hitting its sales. In last earnings, Lululemon already lost 20% on the day. Affected by tariff and Alo's hit, lululemon lost 56% YTD. Would you consider buying the dip on Lululemon? Lululemon products or Lululemon stock โ€” which would you choose?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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