π₯ Nvidia Eyes $4T: Will It Be the First to Breach the Barrier?
As $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ reclaims its $3.5T crown, the question now is not if it can hit $4T, but how soon. With both macro and micro tailwinds aligning, Nvidia is uniquely positioned to lead this next leg of the AI-led rally.
π Valuation Math
At a $3.5T market cap and ~$143/share, Nvidia would need a ~14.3% move to reach $4T. That's equivalent to a price target of ~$163. Given Nvidia's trailing P/E is still below some megacap tech peers (adjusted for growth), this isn't as stretched as it looks.
π Catalysts in Play
AI Infrastructure Arms Race: Cloud providers continue to pour billions into Nvidia H100 and next-gen Blackwell chips. Each hyperscaler upgrade cycle is a revenue multiplier.
Regulatory Easing in China & UK: Jensen Huang's commitment to the UK and easing U.S.βChina tensions reduces geopolitical overhang risk.
Data Center Monetisation: Nvidia's CUDA software ecosystem is increasingly monetised as a sticky platform, not just a chip supplier.
π§ Risks & Watchpoints
High expectations = high volatility. Any Q2/Q3 miss could trigger a sharp correction.
U.S. election uncertainty may impact tech sentiment and trade relations with China.
π My View
Neutral base case: $150β155 range near-term consolidation
Bull case (Q2 beat + China easing): $165β170
Breakout case: $180+ only if forward guidance is revised upward significantly
Whether Nvidia is the first to hit $4T will depend on timing β but structurally, it is the most AI-leveraged name in the market today.
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