🚖 Robotaxi Goes Live: The Real Inflection Point for Tesla?
The official launch of Tesla's Robotaxi testing in Austin marks a pivotal shift — not just in technology, but in how investors should value Tesla. This is no longer just an EV company; it’s actively becoming a platform for autonomous transport, with direct implications for both revenue expansion and margin uplift.
🧠 Valuation Shift: From Cars to Platforms
If Tesla monetises each Robotaxi at ~$30,000/year (as some ARK models suggest), the optionality is staggering. Even modest rollout across a few U.S. cities could justify a rerating of Tesla's valuation multiples, more akin to SaaS or mobility-as-a-service platforms than legacy auto.
📈 Institutional Positioning
Morgan Stanley reiterating its $800 bull-case target is meaningful — not because of the number, but because the Street is finally starting to price in autonomy as real. Expect other institutions to follow as Tesla proves road-readiness, regulatory viability, and user demand.
⚠️ Risks Remain
Autonomy regulation is a patchwork across states. Any accident could trigger reputational and legal blowback. Watch for political risks, especially given Musk's increasing entanglement with partisan discourse. A sell-the-news reaction near $400 would not be surprising, but dips may be short-lived.
📍Tactical View
Base case: $420 near-term if robotaxi rollout expands cleanly
Bull case: $500+ if Q3 shows user traction or new licensing deals
Buy zone: $330–$345 (if market-wide volatility creates entry window)
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