KKLEE
06-11

Nvidia has taken the crown—again. After briefly becoming the world’s most valuable company, Nvidia is now trading neck and neck with Microsoft and Apple, all vying for the trillion-dollar throne. But the real question is: can Nvidia be the first to hit $4 trillion?

Just over a year ago, Nvidia crossed $1 trillion. Then came the AI boom. Now it’s hovering around $3.2 trillion, and the climb doesn’t seem to be slowing. At the current pace, $4 trillion no longer feels like a distant fantasy—it feels like a legitimate milestone within reach.

Why Nvidia Could Get There First

1. AI Is Not a Bubble. It’s a Megatrend.

Nvidia is riding the AI wave at the hardware level. From training large language models to powering data centers for hyperscalers, Nvidia's chips are the oxygen of AI. As enterprises scramble to build or rent AI capacity, demand for GPUs remains insatiable.

2. Massive Margins and Accelerating Earnings

Nvidia isn’t just growing revenue—it’s growing profitability. Gross margins are pushing 70%, and earnings are beating even the most aggressive forecasts. That kind of margin expansion allows for explosive earnings growth, fueling further stock price appreciation.

3. Scarcity of High-Quality AI Plays

There’s a shortage of pure AI infrastructure plays. While others (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) are building AI applications or platforms, Nvidia is the arms dealer, selling shovels in a gold rush. That positioning gives it both pricing power and scale.

4. Broadening Product Pipeline

Beyond GPUs, Nvidia is expanding into networking (InfiniBand), software (CUDA, AI stacks), and even automotive AI. Each adds a new layer of long-term growth and potential market dominance.

The $4 Trillion Path: What Needs to Happen?

For Nvidia to hit a $4 trillion market cap, its share price needs to rise roughly another 25% from current levels. That could be fueled by:

Another blowout earnings quarter

A major new product launch (e.g., Blackwell rollout ramping up)

An expansion of AI buildouts by cloud giants and enterprises

AI-driven growth spreading into healthcare, finance, and government contracts

In this scenario, Nvidia could get to $4T before Apple or Microsoft, both of which face slower growth, regulatory overhangs, or less direct AI exposure.

Risks That Could Derail It

Of course, Nvidia’s rise isn’t guaranteed. Risks include:

Valuation Stretch: At over 40x forward earnings, any slip could spark a sharp pullback.

Geopolitical Tensions: Restrictions on China exports or Taiwan-related risks could hit supply chains or customer base.

Competition Rising: AMD, Intel, and even in-house AI chips from cloud providers are all slowly improving.

Still, Nvidia has consistently outrun the competition with both product performance and ecosystem control. So far, challengers haven’t dented demand.

Final Take: Can It Do It?

Nvidia is no longer just a semiconductor company—it's the AI infrastructure layer of the digital economy. It leads not just in chips, but in ambition, speed, and execution.

If the AI boom continues and earnings stay hot, Nvidia could very well be the first to cross $4 trillion—not because it’s hyped, but because it's essential.

And in a market chasing growth, profitability, and vision all at once, Nvidia checks every box.

Big Chip Energy: Will AMD Run Faster Than Nvidia Toward $200?
AMD jump another4%, closing at $173. Nvidia hits new all time high of $177. Alphabet's $10 billion capex may be viewed as bullish news for NVIDIA. With big tech companies are set to release earnings in the coming weeks, will they increase capex? With AMD strong momentum and Nvidia's fundamental, who will hit $200 first?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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