🤖🚕 Tesla Robotaxi Reveal—Hype, Hope, or the Catalyst Bulls Need?

Tesla:s share price has drifted in no-man's-land for months, stuck between slowing EV demand and sky-high AI expectations. This week’s robotaxi event (8 Aug) could be the fork in the road.

Why bulls say “strap in”

Robotaxi TAM is gigantic – Even 1 % of global ride-hailing could add > US$25 B in annual revenue.

Software-style margins – Every fully-autonomous mile unlocks recurring fees and ads, not razor-thin hardware profits.

Regulatory tailwind? – Reports of a Trump move to relax California EV regs could ease compliance costs nationwide.

Morgan Stanley still pounding the table – Maintains an $800 bull-case target, betting FSD + Dojo = new profit pool.

Why bears still growl

Level-5 autonomy remains elusive – Years of missed timelines; regulatory approvals will be city-by-city, not global.

Core car biz under pressure – Price cuts squeeze gross margins; Q2 ASPs down 5 % YoY.

Competition closing in – BYD, Hyundai, and GM Cruise scaling their own driver-assist stacks.

Valuation already rich – 70 × forward EPS on “hoped-for” software profits.

What I:m watching on reveal day

1. Clear rollout roadmap – Cities, partners, and a subscription price.

2. Updated FSD attach rate – Currently ~16 %; anything > 25 % by 2026 would justify the bull math.

3. Capex guidance – Robotaxi fleet requires new spend; watch for 2025–26 capex bump.

Trade ideas (pick your risk level)

Shares for the believers – Add below US$300 with a mental stop at US$275.

Spec call spread – Aug 9 $330/$380 calls for ~US$6; defined risk if hype lifts the stock.

Hedge-and-hold – Own TSLA, finance it by selling Aug 9 $270 puts (must be willing to buy more on a dip).

Turbo bet – Leveraged long ETF TSLL for a short-term pop, but keep a tight trailing stop—decay bites fast.

My plan

Holding a core TSLA position bought at US$240.

Added a small Aug 9 call spread (330/380) as upside kicker.

Will trim if post-event price fails to clear US$350 within a week.