📈 Microsoft at new highs, Apple down 20 % YTD — which tech titan deserves your next dollar?
Why Microsoft keeps grinding higher
Azure still stealing share – Cloud revenue growth re-accelerated to 29 %. Every 1 % gain vs. AWS adds ≈ US$1 B to annual profit.
Copilot everywhere – AI add-ons baked into Windows, Office 365, and Dynamics should lift average subscription prices 10–15 %.
Balance-sheet fortress – Net cash position + AAA rating = dry powder for more AI chips/partnerships (OpenAI, Mistral, Inflection).
Why Apple is lagging (for now)
iPhone cycle in a lull – Unit growth flat; Vision Pro is too niche to move the needle yet.
Siri revamp pushed to 2026 – Market fears Apple is late to the Gen-AI gold rush.
China headwinds – Competitive pressure from Huawei + softer consumer spending clipped Greater China sales 8 % last quarter.
Valuation snapshot (rounded)
$Microsoft(MSFT)$
$Apple(AAPL)$
Microsoft is pricier, but the Street is paying for visible cloud + AI growth. Apple looks cheaper only if hardware momentum returns.
How I'd play it
1. Core long MSFT – Keep riding the AI/Cloud momentum; use 50-DMA (~US$415) as a trailing stop.
2. Accumulate AAPL on weakness – Add in tranches below US$185; capital-return machine (US$110 B buyback authorisation) plus upside from AI refresh in 2026.
3. Pairs trade idea – Long MSFT / short equal dollar amount of XLK ETF if you expect Apple to keep dragging the sector index.
Quick bull vs. bear checklist
Need growth + AI leverage now? → Microsoft.
Believe in a delayed but powerful AI/iPhone super-cycle? → Apple.
Want diversification and income? → Own both; dividend yields (MSFT 0.7 %, AAPL 0.6 %) sweeten the hold.
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