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06-13

๐Ÿ’ฅ Oil & Defense Spike on Middle-East Tensions โ€” Trade the Shock or Fade the Fear?

Israel's latest strikes on Iran sent WTI up 6 % overnight, while defense contractors $RTX and $LMT jumped ~10 %. History says geopolitical rallies can be fierceโ€”but short-livedโ€”unless supply actually goes offline.

๐ŸŒ Why Oil Could Keep Running

Risk of Strait of Hormuz disruption โ€” 1โ„5 of global crude flows through this 21-mile bottleneck.

OPEC spare capacity already tight โ€” Saudi output cuts leave less buffer if Iranian barrels vanish.

Inventories below 5-yr avg โ€” OECD crude stocks have trended down since Q4.

๐Ÿ›‘ Why the Rally Might Stall

Strategic Petroleum Reserve draws โ€” The U.S. still has room to release barrels to cap prices.

Demand soft patch โ€” Chinaโ€™s PMI contraction and tepid diesel cracks hint at cooling consumption.

Paper squeeze, not physical shortage โ€” Last weekโ€™s open-interest spike shows funds adding hedges faster than refiners buying cargoes.

๐Ÿ”ซ Defense Names on My Radar

$LMT โ€” 40 % backlog in missiles & fire-control; low float means any order chatter squeezes.

$RTX โ€” Patriot system demand > capacity; every 1 Patriot battery (~$1 bn) = ~1 % revenue.

$NOC โ€” Stealth bomber and missile defense exposure; breaks $500 could target $530.

๐Ÿ“Š Trade Ideas

Crude momentum: Long Jul WTI futures (CLN) with stop at $76; first target $88 where SPR jawboning likely kicks in.

Oil-beta equities: Buy $XOM on dips to $112; optionality on Guyana output + 3.3 % yield.

Defense swing: Sell Jun-end $LMT 440 puts โ€” collect premium while positioning to own below 200-DMA.

Hedge: Short $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$  (airlines) above $52 to offset crude long; fuel costs ~25 % of opex.

๐Ÿ“ My Position

Added half-size long Brent Aug 85 calls yesterday.

Watching $VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH)$   (oil-service ETF) for break above 330 to scale into rigs (SLB, HAL).

US Airstrikes = Stock Market Victory? Invest US or Israel Stocks?
On June 21, Trump announced US military had carried out precision strikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities โ€” Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. However, the market doesn't react too much on Monday. Some say it's a victory for stock market. How do you view market still hold a high level despite airstrikes? Problems all cleared or declines postponed?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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