Oracle Shares Surge Post-Earnings: Key Drivers and Weekly Price Outlook

$Oracle(ORCL)$  reported robust fiscal Q4 2025 results, driving its stock price up 13.31% on June 12 and an additional 7.69% on June 13 to close at $215.22. Key metrics:

Earnings Per Share (EPS) : $1.22 (vs. $1.14 in Q4 2024).

Net Profit: $3.43B (up 9.2% YoY).

Cloud Growth Guidance: 40%+ YoY projected for FY2026, with infrastructure growth exceeding 70%.

Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) : $138B (up 100% YoY), signaling strong future revenue visibility.

Analysts from Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Jefferies raised price targets post-earnings, citing Oracle’s AI-driven cloud expansion and partnerships with tech giants like Google and Microsoft.

Market Reaction & Technical Analysis

Post-Earnings Surge : ORCL gained 22.7% in three days (June 12–14), hitting a 52-week high of $216.60.

Volume & Momentum : Trading volume spiked to 53.71M shares (June 14), with a volume ratio of 2.68 , indicating intense buying pressure.

Options Activity: Heavy call option volumes at strikes up to $210 (July 2025 expiry), reflecting bullish bets on further upside.

Price Forecast for the Week Ahead

Bullish Catalysts:

Analyst Upgrades: BMO Capital raised its target to $235 (Outperform), while Jefferies lifted its target to $220.

Technical Setup: Stock broke above resistance at $200; next target near $220–225 (aligned with open interest in call options).

Sentiment: Short-term capital inflows and institutional buying (e.g., Vanguard, BlackRock) support momentum.

Key Risks:

Overbought conditions (RSI above 70) may trigger profit-taking.

High valuation (Forward P/E: 29.52 vs. sector average of 25).

Weekly Range Estimate: $210 (support) to $225 (resistance) for coming week.

Analyst Commentary

BMO Capital: “Oracle’s cloud momentum and AI partnerships justify a rerating.”

Jefferies: “RPO growth and infrastructure demand signal multi-year upside.”