$COIN vs $CRCL — Is Coin Undervalued?

Circle’s IPO buzz has brought serious attention, pushing its market cap to nearly $44.48B, or about 59% of Coinbase ($75.2B). But does this valuation hold up under scrutiny?

The Valuation Gap

Despite being much smaller by every financial metric, Circle is being priced at a hefty premium:

So why is Circle trading at a 10x earnings multiple premium, with EV/EBITDA over 7x higher?

Circle Sends Money... to Coinbase?

Here’s the kicker: About half of Circle’s revenue flows into Coinbase’s pocket via custody fees, stablecoin infrastructure, and ecosystem support. That means COIN benefits whether CRCL flies or flops — Coinbase owns the toll roads of USDC.

Circle is like a high-growth tenant. Coinbase owns the building.

Momentum vs. Fundamentals

Circle has:

• IPO hype ✅

• The stablecoin narrative ✅

• Strong brand and USDC dominance ✅

But when looking under the hood:

• Profit margins are thinner

• Earnings are significantly lower

• Still highly reliant on Coinbase’s infra

🤔 So… Is Circle Overvalued?

Maybe. At 282x P/E, Circle is priced for massive future growth. Yet its top-line and bottom-line lag far behind Coinbase. In fact, Coinbase has higher earnings, better margins, and gets paid by Circle.

That’s leading many to ask:

Is $CRCL overvalued… or is $COIN still quietly undervalued?

Circle might be the flashy new listing, but Coinbase is the infrastructure powerhouse making it all possible. If CRCL is already worth ~70% of COIN while delivering only 6–26% of the performance — something might need to give.

Which side are you on?