$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ has certainly had an explosive start to its public trading, and reaching $300 in share price is a target some analysts believe is achievable.
The most significant factor to catalyze a sustained move to $300 would be the widespread and unambiguous regulatory clarity and institutional adoption of stablecoins, particularly USDC, as a mainstream payment and settlement rail.
In this article, I would like to explore the reason behind the why it might be achievable.
Regulatory Validation: Recent legislative developments, such as the U.S. Senate passing the GENIUS Act, indicate a growing seriousness from governments regarding stablecoin regulation. Clear and favorable regulations would significantly de-risk stablecoins for traditional financial institutions, fostering greater trust and integration. If USDC is officially recognized and utilized as a "true cash equivalent" in areas like futures trading collateral (as expected from the CFTC by 2026), it unlocks massive institutional capital and use cases.
USDC Adoption and Market Share: Circle's revenue is heavily tied to the yield generated on USDC reserves. For CRCL to reach $300, USDC's circulating supply would need to expand substantially (e.g., from current ~$60 billion to $150-$200 billion). This growth would come from increased use in cross-border payments, decentralized finance (DeFi), and especially the tokenization of real-world assets.
According to Artemis Analytics, the supply of USDC grew by $16.3 billion between January and March, outpacing USDT’s $4.4 billion growth in the same period. Despite this momentum, USDT still leads with a total market capitalization of $144 billion. A key driver of USDC’s expansion has been its increased usage on the Solana blockchain.
Will we be seeing the same happening for increased usage on the Circle blockchain?
Monetization of APIs and Services: Beyond reserve yield, Circle's strategy involves building out its "Web3 financial infrastructure" through APIs for programmable payments, digital identity, and treasury tools. Successful monetization and widespread adoption of these services would diversify revenue streams and add high-margin software-like income, which is crucial for a high valuation.
Senate Passing Of The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins ("GENIUS") Act
On June 17, 2025, the Senate passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins ("GENIUS") Act with a bipartisan 68–30 vote, marking a significant legislative milestone for the cryptocurrency industry.
If we looked back at the pre-IPO analysis, we are considering factors like the Genius Act which is short-term bullish for Circle, and also main blocker is 50% splitting with Coinbase.
Circle's separation from Coinbase, which saw Circle repurchase Coinbase's 50% stake in the Centre Consortium (the original governance body for USDC), has a nuanced impact on Circle's potential to reach a $300 target price.
Impact of Coinbase Split
Pros: Circle gains full control over USDC strategy and ecosystem development, allowing it to pursue its vision of becoming a global payment infrastructure without potential conflicts of interest or divided priorities with $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ . This increased autonomy could streamline innovation and partnerships.
Cons: While Circle now fully controls USDC, a revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase remains, where Coinbase receives 50% of interest earnings from USDC reserves not held on its platform, and 100% of those on its platform. This means a significant portion of USDC's revenue still flows to Coinbase, potentially limiting Circle's direct profitability from its core stablecoin. Coinbase also retains certain veto rights and IP claims.
Summary
While CRCL's current valuation is already high (with a high P/E ratio reflecting growth expectations), sustained regulatory tailwinds combined with surging institutional and enterprise adoption of USDC and Circle's integrated financial services would be the primary engines for a move towards and potentially beyond $300.
With this clear regulatory framework embraced by the senate approval of the GENIUS act and subsequent institutional embrace, the path to $300 might be with less challenging and speculative.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think with senate approval of the GENIUS act, will it be coming to help Circle to push towards $300 with much more potential.
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
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