The $400 question no one’s answering properly (until now)
Coinbase (COIN) just charged past its previous ceiling to notch a fresh 52-week high of $382, sparking cheers from crypto optimists and winces from short sellers. At the time of writing, COIN closed at $375.07, up 5.54% on the day, and up nearly 75% over the past year. The real question for investors: is this a FOMO moment or a smart entry point? Should we be chasing the breakout, or is the rally running on borrowed time?
Let’s dig into the data, the drama, and the delightful possibility that $400 is only the halfway point—not the top.
New Highs and Old Habits: The Breakout Case
COIN towers into new highs—crypto's Wall Street moment?
There’s no doubt about it—$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ has momentum. Volume surged to over 27 million shares traded, more than twice its average, as the breakout through $355 resistance morphed into a full-blown melt-up. And with Bitcoin stabilising around the $65k–$70k range and institutions warming up to crypto again (hello, ETFs), COIN is getting a powerful second wind.
Here's what many investors might miss: the correlation between Coinbase’s price action and institutional flows into crypto markets is tighter than ever. Coinbase isn’t just riding the Bitcoin tide—it is the tide for U.S.-based institutions needing a compliant and liquid on-ramp. With BlackRock and others now embedding Coinbase custody and infrastructure into their crypto offerings, the company's moat is deepening. Coinbase has quietly become the plumbing of institutional crypto in the West.
Even more intriguing? Coinbase’s 5-year return stands at a paltry 1.56%—yes, really. That means many funds still view this as a turnaround story, not a runaway success. In other words, there’s room for re-rating if profits prove sustainable.
Wait… 70x Earnings? Is This a Joke?
Not quite. With a trailing P/E of 70.37 and a PEG ratio north of 100, COIN’s valuation doesn’t exactly scream ‘bargain.’ But this isn’t your typical tech stock. Coinbase is straddling the worlds of finance, software, and speculation—and pricing that is inherently fuzzy.
Yes, quarterly earnings growth cratered 94.4% year-on-year, which sounds horrific until you realise they were lapping an unusually strong Q1 2024 during the Bitcoin ETF launch frenzy. The bigger picture? COIN posted a 22% profit margin and still generated $1.96 billion in operating cash flow over the last twelve months. That’s no meme.
Moreover, $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ holds over $8 billion in cash versus $4.6 billion in debt, and it runs a healthy current ratio of 2.52. It’s not just alive—it’s thriving under the hood, even with volatile revenue cycles.
Chasing or Pacing? My Take on the Timing
This is where things get nuanced. If you’re a long-term investor, I don’t think you need to stress about whether COIN hits $400 next week or next month. The more relevant question is whether you believe in crypto’s integration into mainstream finance—and whether Coinbase will continue to be the rails that make that possible.
One look at the price channel and volume profile tells you everything: this breakout isn’t just loud — it’s clearing old resistance like it never existed.
Volume fades, price roars — Coinbase breaks out with conviction
Personally, I wouldn’t mind starting or adding here in small tranches, because chasing momentum with discipline can still pay off. The stock is now trading more than '55% above' its 50-day moving average—a nosebleed stat, but also a sign of strength in a bull phase. The 200-day MA? A distant memory down at $235.
Short interest is only 5.76% of float, and the short ratio is a mere 0.87. That means there’s not much dry powder left for a proper squeeze—but also that most sceptics have already been flushed out. The next move higher will likely need fundamental fuel.
Earnings in late July could be the next catalyst—or landmine. For now, there’s a strong case that this is a 'refresh' rather than a ‘blow-off.’
$400? Tempting Target or Trap?
Psychologically, $400 is a juicy round number, and we’re only 6.6% away. But it’s not just about sentiment. Hitting and holding $400 would mean $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ is approaching a $100 billion market cap—territory that brings in a new class of investors (and headlines).
The bigger question is whether it can sustain that valuation. Given the 498% return over three years, you could argue the market is already baking in hypergrowth. But keep in mind: in that same period, COIN’s multiple has compressed from a nosebleed IPO peak to something… semi-rational. Not cheap, but no longer delusional.
And here’s the surprise insight many miss: 'Coinbase’s revenue per share is $26.65', and yet its book value per share is just $41.12. This is no longer a pre-profit hopeful—it’s a platform with real earnings, a fortress balance sheet, and optionality galore. If crypto enters a proper adoption phase, COIN isn’t expensive. It’s early.
Tipping point: is $400 still just the beginning?
Buy Buy, But Don’t Blindfold Yourself
Coinbase at $375 might feel like buying $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ at $800 or $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ at $900. Risky? Yes. Premature? Possibly. But also potentially brilliant if the growth narrative keeps unfolding. I wouldn’t go all-in today, but I do believe COIN belongs on the radar—if not already in the portfolio.
This is not the end of the move, but the start of a new phase. $400 is doable, and if Q2 earnings impress, we might be asking $500 when? sooner than expected. So for now, I’m leaning ‘buy buy,’ not ‘bye bye’—with an eyebrow raised and a finger near the risk switch.
Just don’t bet the crypto farm.
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