🚀 $NVDA to $4 Trillion: Still a Buy at This Level?
The AI kingpin $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
For those of us who started accumulating below $100 — I personally began building my position in mid-2020 around $95, right after the Mellanox acquisition started bearing fruit — this moment is both validating and nerve-wracking. Let's dig into Nvidia's long-term potential and whether it’s still a buy at this valuation.
🧠 Nvidia's Growth Story and AI Dominance
Nvidia’s transformation from a gaming GPU company into a full-stack AI infrastructure powerhouse is the cornerstone of its meteoric rise. The $4T hype isn't just speculative — it's grounded in the company’s strategic control of the AI compute stack:
Data Center Dominance: Over 80% market share in AI accelerators with H100 and A100 GPUs dominating hyperscale deployments
CUDA Moat: Nvidia’s proprietary CUDA software ecosystem creates massive switching costs. Developers are locked in.
Historical Moves: From acquiring Mellanox (2020) for high-speed interconnects to its push into Arm-based CPU integration and Hopper/Blackwell GPUs, Nvidia is vertically integrating its AI stack.
As AI models grow more compute-intensive, Nvidia’s position as the arms dealer of this AI revolution continues to look unshakable — for now.
📊 Fundamentals Check
Let’s run through some numbers to see what’s backing this monster valuation:
Market Cap: ~$3.3T (as of June 2025) — knocking on the $4T door
Revenue (TTM): ~$90B
Net Income: ~$44B
EPS (TTM): ~$16
Forward PE: ~50x
PEG Ratio: ~1.6 (suggests the valuation is high, but not absurd given the 30–35% expected CAGR)
🆚 Peer Comparison: $NVDA vs. $AMD and $AVGO
$NVDA (Nvidia)
Forward P/E: ~50x
EPS Growth: ~30–35%
Data Center Exposure: High (Industry-leading in AI GPUs)
$AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)
Forward P/E: ~37x
EPS Growth: ~22%
Data Center Exposure: Growing (MI300X gaining traction)
$AVGO (Broadcom)
Forward P/E: ~30x
EPS Growth: ~15%
Data Center Exposure: Moderate (Focus on custom silicon and infrastructure)
Nvidia still commands a premium — and arguably deserves it, given its software moat + first-mover lead in AI.
📈 Technical Chart Snapshot
Nvidia’s chart shows classic strong-trend behavior, but also signs of short-term exhaustion.
Support Levels: $135–140 (recent breakout base), $180 (longer-term support)
Resistance: Approaching psychological barrier at $150
RSI: Near 70 — slightly overbought
50/200 MA: Golden Cross confirmed — long-term trend remains bullish
> 📉 Embed Suggestion: Add a TradingView or Koyfin 6-month chart here with RSI, 50/200 MA, and key levels marked.
Unless the broader tech market corrects, Nvidia could consolidate between $135–$150 before making a new push toward $180–$200.
🧳 Long-Term Investor Reflection
As someone who DCA’ed into $NVDA starting at ~$95, I’ve held through the volatility, believing in its 20-year compounder potential. Here’s why:
AI is not a trend — it’s a platform shift as significant as mobile or the internet.
Nvidia is building mission-critical infrastructure for that shift.
Even if margins compress, secular growth in AI inference + training workloads will continue to drive demand.
If you zoom out, we may just be in chapter two of a multi-decade growth story.
⚠️ Risks to Consider
Even giants have weak spots:
Valuation Stretch: Trading at 50x earnings, Nvidia must consistently deliver 30%+ growth
Geopolitical Exposure: China restrictions on AI chip exports could dent revenues
Custom Silicon Threat: Big tech (Amazon, Google, Meta) is developing in-house AI chips. While not a near-term threat, it could erode pricing power over time
Still, Nvidia has weathered competition before and may do so again — by staying one step ahead.
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