Reward 500 Tiger-coins$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ closed at 8541, up 4.68% YTD, slightly lower than $S&P 500(.SPX)$’s return.
What happened in H1? Rate cuts drive the market higher.
In the first half of 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates twice. The latest cut in May lowered the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the first time since May 2023 that rates have fallen below 4%.
This shift follows a period of aggressive tightening, 13 consecutive rate hikes from May 2022 to November 2023, pushing rates to a peak of 4.1% to combat inflation. Rates then remained steady until February 2025, when the RBA delivered its first cut, bringing the rate to 4.1%, followed by May’s further easing.
The move to 3.85% not only sets a new two-year low but also signals a clear shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy stance.
Sector & stock performance: Finance and gold sector shine in H1
From a fiscal year perspective, ASX 200 index rose 9.7%, marking its strongest annual gain since the pandemic began.
This rally was largely driven by the strong performance of the financial sector, which surged 24%, with $COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CBA.AU)$ jumping 46%. Other top gainers, including $Helia Group Limited(HLI.AU)$ , $BANK OF QUEENSLAND LTD(BOQ.AU)$ , $HUB24 LTD(HUB.AU)$ , $BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK(BEN.AU)$ , and $WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION(WBC.AU)$, also came from the financial sector.
With US banking giants set to report earnings soon, could this year’s rate cuts and market volatility further benefit the financial sector?
Gold miners also posted major gains, supported by central bank gold buying and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold stocks now account for 19% of the Small Ords index, with $Genesis Minerals Ltd(GMD.AU)$ and $GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LTD(GOR.AU)$ leading the rally.
However, not all miners performed welL $MINERAL RESOURCES LTD(MIN.AU)$ is among the worst-performing stocks in the ASX 200 this year. Concerns around corporate governance, insider trading, falling lithium prices, and high leverage have weighed heavily on its share price.
The tech sector surged 24%, while consumer discretionary retail stocks also performed well, driven by rate cut expectations.
How to expect for H2?
Morgan Stanley forecasts the S&P/ASX 200 to reach 8,500 by mid-2026, driven by an 11% earnings recovery and a 17x forward PE, with a 4.5% dividend yield enhancing appeal.
Australia’s economy benefits from fiscal stimulus, limited US tariff exposure (less than 1% of GDP), and anticipated RBA rate cuts in August and November 2025, supporting a stable investment environment.
According to Bloomberg data, the 12-month average target for the ASX 200 stands at 8,531 points.
Finance vs. gold: will the winners continue the bull trend?
Which AU stock do you recommend for other investors?
Share your ASX recap in the comment section to win tiger coins! Every comment will get at least 5 tiger coins~~
Comments
perhaps, trending both ways...
In the first half of 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates twice. The latest cut in May lowered the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the first time since May 2023 that rates have fallen below 4%.
This shift follows a period of aggressive tightening, 13 consecutive rate hikes from May 2022 to November 2023, pushing rates to a peak of 4.1% to combat inflation. Rates then remained steady until February 2025, when the RBA delivered its first cut, bringing the rate to 4.1%, followed by May’s further easing.
Finance vs. gold: will the winners continue the bull trend?
Which AU stock do you recommend for other investors?
Share your ASX recap in the comment section to win tiger coins! Every comment will get at least 5 tiger coins~~
Check your tiger coin center and history to find out[Lovely][Lovely]
我個人認爲，這兩個板塊下半年依然有望維持強勢，但節奏上會有分化。金融板塊受惠於穩健的利差、強勁的信貸需求，以及經濟“軟着陸”預期，如果澳洲央行在Q3或Q4開始暗示降息，反而可能進一步提振銀行估值，特別是CBA這種高ROE的“銀行貴族”，依舊值得長線持有。
至於黃金，我認爲趨勢沒結束，只是漲多之後容易出現高位震盪。像**Northern Star Resources（NST）或Evolution Mining（EVN）**這樣的澳洲金礦股，如果金價穩在3500美元以上，會持續受益，但要留意美元與全球風險情緒的波動。
如果讓我向投資者推薦一隻AU股票，我會選Macquarie Group（MQG）。它既有銀行基因，又深耕基礎設施與另類資產，在利率拐點來臨之際，攻守兼備，頗有延續行情的潛力。