Lately, Coinbase (ticker: COIN) has been on an impressive run, grabbing headlines and stirring up bullish chatter. Some are already setting their sights on the $400 mark, and to be fair, the momentum has been hard to ignore. That said, COIN shares did take a breather today, slipping about 3.7% now, a reminder that even the hottest stocks don’t climb in a straight line. Still, despite all the hype, I’m staying on the sidelines.
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)
For full transparency: I don’t own any shares of Coinbase, and I have no intention of buying any, regardless of where the price heads next. Whether it rockets past $400 or stumbles tomorrow, it’s not part of my plan.
Interestingly, even ARK Invest—well-known for its high-conviction bets on innovation—recently trimmed its position in Coinbase. I don't usually put much weight on what institutional players like ARK are doing, but their move does add one more data point suggesting that COIN might still be trading above its intrinsic value.
Beyond that, my current strategy is driven less by stock-specific conviction and more by broader macro concerns. I've been rebalancing my portfolio in anticipation of a potential recession. While many market participants remain optimistic, pointing to a resilient U.S. economy and the possibility of a "soft landing" or even "no landing", I remain skeptical.
Interest rates have been elevated for quite some time now, and though there are signs of gradual easing, the potential damage from prolonged tightening may not have fully played out yet. On top of that, tariffs could add yet another headwind to global growth. The risks are piling up, and I’m in no mood to be caught holding the bag.
These days, I’m only allocating capital to companies I have deep, long-term confidence in, those that I’d be willing to hold through turbulence. Coinbase just doesn’t make that cut for me. High-profile or not, I’d rather stick to my conviction plays than chase momentum and hope for the best.
So, while COIN might be "unstoppable" for now, I’ll be watching from the sidelines, with no FOMO, just caution.
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