I believe $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ is one of the most compelling growth‑at‑scale stories in the market today. Here’s why I’m watching CrowdStrike so closely, from its business model to its chart setup, and why I think it deserves a spot on my shortlist.
I’ve long admired how CrowdStrike pioneered a cloud‑native approach to endpoint security with its Falcon platform. Unlike legacy on‑prem appliances, Falcon delivers real‑time protection and threat hunting entirely from the cloud, letting customers scale instantly and avoid hardware refresh cycles. Over the past year, I’ve seen them layer on AI‑driven threat detection, leveraging machine learning to flag unusual behavior before an attack can propagate. That strategic pivot not only widens their moat but also positions them to capture ever‑higher customer spend as threats grow more sophisticated.
In their latest quarter (ended April 30), I was particularly struck by these highlights:
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$1.10 billion in revenue (+20% YoY) and $1.05 billion in subscription revenue (+20% YoY)
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Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $4.44 billion (+22% YoY), with $194 million net new ARR added in Q1.
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Record operating cash flow of $384 million and free cash flow of $279 million gives me confidence in the durability of their cash‑generation model.
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Share repurchase authorization of up to $1 billion, signaling that management feels the shares are attractively valued even at today’s levels.
To me, those figures aren’t just “good”, they underscore that CrowdStrike is scaling profitably, funding its AI R&D organically, and returning capital to shareholders simultaneously.
I estimate the global cybersecurity market will exceed $250 billion by 2026, driven by cloud migration and AI‑powered threat evolution. CrowdStrike’s net new ARR and ARR growth demonstrate both stickiness and expansion within its customer base. Every $100 million of new ARR added in Q1 reinforces the compounding revenue stream that comes from high‑value, recurring subscription contracts.
On the competitive front, while legacy vendors like $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ and newcomers like $SentinelOne, Inc(S)$ all compete fiercely, I see CrowdStrike’s combination of cloud scale, AI tooling, and ecosystem partnerships (AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft) as a durable advantage. Their early move into identity protection, cloud security posture management, and next‑gen SIEM broadens the platform’s reach—an aspect I view as critical for continued upsell.
Technical Analysis
CRWD Daily Chart
Looking at the daily chart, the price has been rallying steadily in a channel after breakout of a double bottom consolidation. The higher highs & higher lows confirm this sustained bullish momentum. As of now, the 50‑day SMA sits near $490, and 200‑day SMA around $450, both sloping up, which is a classic sign of healthy uptrend. Immediate resistance is at $517–$525. A clear close above $525 on above‑average volume would, in my view, open the path toward $580. Support at the bottom of the channel around $490–$495 offers a logical re‑entry zone if I miss the initial move.
At a $105 billion market cap and consensus FY 2026 revenue of $5 billion, CrowdStrike trades at about 21× forward sales, roughly in line with high‑growth SaaS peers. Given its 25% FCF conversion, 22% ARR growth, and AI acceleration, I see that multiple as justified. A re‑acceleration of ARR above 25% or further margin expansion could support multiple expansion, in my view.
My Personal Plan
For risk management, I’d trim or cut positions if CRWD closed below $475 on heavy volume—violating the recent higher‑low pattern and 50‑day SMA.
Why I’m interested now: CrowdStrike’s blend of cloud scale, AI differentiation, and profitable growth makes it one of my top cybersecurity picks.
Targets:
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$580 on breakout above $525.
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$650 if they outpace guidance in their Q2 FY 2026 report (expected August 20, 2025).
Sizing my position at 5% of my portfolio keeps me exposed to the upside while respecting the valuation premium. If CrowdStrike delivers another >22% ARR gain and maintains ~25% FCF conversion in Q2, I’ll be happy to hold through the noise, confident in the long‑term security‑AI story.
@MillionaireTiger @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @CaptainTiger @TigerSG
Disclaimer: This is a general analysis and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
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