$Copper - main 2509(HGmain)$ Fever: Tariff Fears Stoke Fresh Record Highsâand Best YTD Rallies in Years
Copper is having its moment. Global three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange punched above US$11,000/tonne this weekâlevels never seen beforeâas investors price in two simultaneous shocks:
a second wave of U.S. tariffs on Chinese metal goods that could further squeeze refined supply, and
accelerating grid and EV demand that shows no sign of cooling.
The knock-on effect for copper-linked equities has been violent to the upside. From Vancouver to Shenzhen, miners, ETFs and even downstream fabricators are printing their best year-to-date gains since 2006.
1.UNITED STATES: Juniors Lead, but Freeport Still the Liquidity King
Data as of July 10th 2025
⢠$Taseko Mines(TGB)$ +88.66% YTD. The Vancouver juniorâs Florence in-situ project in Arizona just received its final EPA water permit, de-risking 85 million lbs of annual copper output slated for 2027.
⢠$Freeport-McMoRan(FCX)$ +23.98%. The bellwether has become the go-to ETF proxy for copper exposure, trading an average US$1.4 billion in daily volumeâmore than the next four copper names combined.
⢠$Southern Copper Corp(SCCO)$ +14.15%. Mexicoâs largest producer is spending US$1.5 billion to expand its Buenavista mine, adding 100 k tonnes of capacity by 2026.
⢠$Ero Copper(ERO)$ +9.50%. Despite the smallest gain, Eroâs low-cost CaraĂba ops in Brazil still command 50%+ EBITDA margins at current prices.
ETFs: Leveraged Beta With One Click
⢠$SPROTT JUNIOR COPPER MINERS ETF(COPJ)$ +43.74%
⢠$United States Copper Index Fund(CPER)$ +38.31%
⢠$iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF(ICOP)$ +19.47%
⢠$Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$ +19.12%
⢠$Sprott Copper Miners ETF(COPP)$ +15.99%
2.HONG KONG: China Exposure, China Discount
⢠$CHINFMINING(01258)$ +40.95%. The cathode producer is re-rating on expectations Beijing will front-load grid capex to offset property-sector drag.
⢠$CDAYENONFER(00661)$ +33.33%. A pure-play on the world-class Tibet Qulong depositânow fully permitted after a decade-long environmental review.
⢠$JIANGXI COPPER(00358)$ +27.50%. Asiaâs largest smelter is enjoying rare âdouble happinessâ: higher TC/RC treatment charges and surging by-product gold credits.
What Could Stop the Music?
⢠Policy Risk: If the White House opts for a narrower tariff list, the supply shock narrative could unwind fast.
⢠Macro Chill: A hard-landing scenario in Chinaâstill ~55% of global copper demandâwould torpedo spot premiums regardless of U.S. policy.
⢠Scrap Flood: Above US$10k, Chinese secondary smelters can pay up for scrap, historically capping further upside.
Bottom Line
For now, the path of least resistance is higher. Money managers are rotating out of mega-cap tech into late-cycle real-asset plays, and copperâscarce, strategic and impossible to âprintââis the obvious beneficiary. Whether you reach for the torque of a Taseko or the liquidity of a Freeport, the trade is the same: long electrification, long supply scarcity, andâat least for nowâlong tariffs.
For SG usres only, open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.
Other helpful links:
Comments