This breakout attempt is doomed to fail - and here’s why it’s actually bearish.

Everyone’s getting excited about the technical setup, but I think we’re missing the fundamental reality:

China’s stimulus is fake stimulus. Beijing keeps announcing “support measures” but they’re mostly just liquidity injections and regulatory tweaks, not real fiscal spending. The property sector is still imploding, local government debt is spiraling, and consumer confidence is broken. You can’t technical-analysis your way around a balance sheet recession.

The three previous failures weren’t coincidences. Each time HSI approached 25,000, international investors used the rally to reduce China exposure. This isn’t a resistance level - it’s an exit ramp. Foreign capital outflows from Hong Kong equities are structurally intact, not cyclically pausing.

Hong Kong’s role as China’s financial gateway is ending. The national security law, COVID isolation policies, and now the push for Shanghai/Shenzhen primacy means Hong Kong is becoming increasingly irrelevant. The HSI is an index of yesterday’s China, not tomorrow’s.

Geopolitical tensions are only getting worse. Every HSI rally gets sold because institutional investors know that US-China decoupling is accelerating under both parties. Taiwan tensions, trade restrictions, and technology export controls aren’t priced in - they’re being ignored.

The most dangerous part: This fourth attempt might actually succeed briefly, creating a massive bull trap. If HSI breaks 25,000, I’d expect a violent reversal within weeks as reality reasserts itself.

The smart money isn’t buying this breakout - they’re using any strength to finish reducing China exposure before the next leg down to 20,000.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​