$POP MART(09992)$ The market is right to sell - this is peak collectibles bubble, and Pop Mart is the poster child for what’s about to implode.

Everyone’s focused on the 200%+ revenue growth, but I think we’re witnessing the top of an unsustainable mania:

Collectible toys are the 2025 version of Beanie Babies. The entire blind box/mystery toy craze is driven by artificial scarcity and FOMO, not genuine collecting passion. Pop Mart’s business model is literally gambling disguised as retail - and regulatory crackdowns on loot box mechanics are coming to physical goods too.

The China consumer story is broken. Pop Mart’s growth is happening precisely as Chinese youth unemployment hits record highs and disposable income shrinks. Spending ¥59-199 on random plastic toys is peak discretionary spending - first thing cut when reality hits. The demographic driving their growth (urban millennials/Gen Z) is about to face a brutal economic reckoning.

IP dependency is a fatal flaw. Pop Mart doesn’t own most of their successful characters - they’re licensing deals that can disappear overnight. Molly, Crybaby, even Labubu aren’t Pop Mart’s intellectual property. They’re essentially a fancy distribution channel that can be disintermediated by the actual IP owners.

The “ShinyShiny” launch timing is terrible. Launching new series during a stock decline screams desperation. Successful toy companies build anticipation over months/years, not rush releases to prop up quarterly numbers.

International expansion will fail. What works in dense Asian cities with collectibles culture doesn’t translate globally. Western consumers buy toys for function, not blind box gambling mechanics.

The market’s selling because smart money recognizes this as a cyclical peak masquerading as structural growth. Pop Mart at current levels is still overvalued for what’s essentially a fad retailer.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​