Google might actually be overv-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Google might actually be overvalued, not undervalued.

While everyone’s focused on AI integration and cloud growth, I think the market is overlooking some serious structural headwinds:

Search is peaking. We’re seeing the early stages of search unbundling - ChatGPT, Perplexity, and specialized AI tools are starting to replace traditional search for specific queries. Young users increasingly go straight to TikTok or Reddit for information. Google’s moat isn’t as unbreachable as people think.

The AI arms race is a margin killer. Yes, Google has technical AI capabilities, but they’re being forced into a costly infrastructure race with OpenAI, Microsoft, and others. Every dollar spent on compute for AI is a dollar that used to drop straight to the bottom line from search ads. The old Google model was beautiful - minimal marginal costs. The new AI-integrated model is capital intensive.

Regulatory pressure is real and underpriced. The DOJ antitrust case isn’t going away, and there’s bipartisan appetite for reining in Big Tech. A forced breakup or significant business model restrictions could happen within 2-3 years.

Cloud growth is nice, but Amazon and Microsoft have structural advantages in enterprise relationships and hybrid solutions that Google struggles to match.

At $185, you’re paying for perfection in a world where Google’s core business model is facing its first real existential challenge in 20 years. I’d rather wait for sub-$150 or look elsewhere entirely.

Profit Turnaround+High Growth! Hidden Gems of Earnings Season?

This earnings season is nearing its end — which companies beat expectations or turned profitable, and which ones deserve more attention? During past turnarounds, many growth stocks achieved outsized gains. High-growth companies that turned profitable include DASH, OKTA, NTNX, TMDX, TOST, and RELY. In addition, Chinese ADRs this season should not be overlooked. Niu Technologies turned profitable in Q2, with its stock surging over 30%. Bilibili profit turned around, but shares fell 6% yesterday. Miniso's TOP TOY Revenue +73% and Jumped 6% on Earnings, continued to surge.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

JackQuant
07-21
JackQuant
Nice!👍

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