$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Everyone keeps parroting the idea that AI is going to kill Google Search.
Sure -- the era of printing cash off blue-link ads is winding down. That part’s real.
But $Alphabet(GOOG)$ isn’t just a search engine. It’s the OS of the digital workday: Gmail, Docs, Sheets, Meet, Drive, Chrome, Android. That’s where people live -- and Gemini is being quietly embedded into every inch of that stack.
The shift from clicks to tokens is already underway:
• Gemini costs $20–30/user/month in Workspace. Flat-rate for now, but you think usage-based pricing isn’t coming?
• Vertex AI? Already monetized per token.
• Gemini for Ads? Actively testing AI-generated copy, headlines & creative -- every variation = tokens.
Eventually, Gemini runs in the background across Chrome, Android & Search -- prompting, typing, summarizing -- all of it metered like compute.
Google also doesn’t have to “win” the LLM race. They already control the distribution. The users. The workflows. The data. The default apps.
No one’s leaving Gmail. Or Docs. Or Android. Gemini doesn’t need to go viral -- it just needs to SHOW UP.
This feels exactly like betting against Microsoft in 2013 -- just before the market realized Azure, Office 365 & Copilot were quietly rewiring the enterprise.
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