TMC_REGARD
07-20

1. Intel ($INTC) - The Comeback Nobody Sees Coming

Everyone’s written off Intel as a dinosaur losing to TSMC and NVIDIA, but I think they’re setting up for the biggest turnaround story of the decade. The CHIPS Act money is real, their foundry business is finally getting traction, and most importantly - geopolitical tensions are going to force American companies back to domestic chip production whether they like it or not. At current prices, you’re getting a potential 10x return if they execute even halfway decently.

2. Tesla ($TSLA) - The Growth Story is Over

This is my biggest short thesis. Everyone’s still pricing Tesla like it’s a startup, but it’s becoming a mature auto company with mature auto margins. The EV adoption curve is flattening, competition is brutal, and Musk’s distractions are mounting. Most dangerously, the autonomous driving promises keep getting pushed out while the stock price assumes they’ll be solved next year. When reality hits, this drops 60%.

3. Shopify ($SHOP) - The Anti-Amazon Play That’s Actually Winning

While everyone obsesses over AI and chips, Shopify is quietly building the infrastructure that’s going to power the next phase of e-commerce. Small businesses are getting fed up with Amazon’s marketplace fees and lack of customer ownership. Shopify’s merchant solutions are becoming the backbone of direct-to-consumer commerce. They’re trading like a SaaS company but they’re actually becoming the payment rails for independent retail.

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Comments

  • popzi
    07-21
    popzi
    Interesting insights! Intel does seem poised for a bounce back, but is it too risky holding long?
  • JackQuant
    07-21
    JackQuant
    Thanks for sharing!
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