I’ve never bought anything from Pop Mart before not because I dislike their toys, but because I usually prioritize spending on things I actually need. That said, curiosity recently got the better of me, and I found myself scrolling through Pop Mart’s official website.
I have to admit: their toys are oddly delightful. I wasn’t planning to buy anything, but just browsing their collections brought an unexpected smile to my face. One that stood out was Labubu — there's something oddly charming about its little set of sharp, mischievous-looking teeth. It’s easy to see why Pop Mart has built such a dedicated fanbase. Their lineup is a visual treat, bursting with cuteness, creativity, and a very Instagram-friendly aesthetic.
From a business perspective, Pop Mart seems to be firing on all cylinders. This week, the company announced some projections: revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to jump by no less than 200% year-over-year, and net profit is forecasted to surge by at least 350%. Those are not small numbers, they’re massive. And yet, despite this bullish forecast, the stock price has continued to slide.
POP MART (09992)
That disconnect is puzzling. You’d expect investors to cheer such explosive growth. Instead, the market seems unimpressed. My guess? Expectations were already sky-high. In markets, good news isn’t always good enough if it doesn't exceed what investors were already pricing in.
Adding to the buzz, Pop Mart is launching a brand-new Crybaby series soon, titled "ShinyShiny." I'm not personally interested in collecting them, but I can see how this new line could boost sales and reignite fan excitement. These launches tend to generate strong hype in Pop Mart's collector community, especially among fans who love the hunt for limited editions.
Still, from an investment standpoint, I’m staying on the sidelines.
Even though Pop Mart is clearly a strong brand with passionate customers and creative momentum, I find the stock price too rich for my taste. The current price, as of today’s close, sits at $242.4 HKD — not far from its 52-week high of $283.4, and a far cry from its 52-week low of $36.35. That’s a massive range, and right now the stock feels closer to the ceiling than the floor.
To top it off, the dividend yield is quite low, which makes it even less appealing to me as a long-term hold. I’m not saying the company doesn’t have potential — clearly, it does but in my view, the valuation simply doesn’t offer enough margin of safety.
So, while I’ll be watching tomorrow’s release of “ShinyShiny” with interest and probably scrolling through social media to admire what people pull from their blind boxes, I won’t be joining the collector crowd or the investor base. At least, not yet.
Sometimes the best way to enjoy a toy company... is just to look and smile.
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