Day Trading Analysis for 28 July 2025: Top 3 Long Opportunities

Market Context: US markets closed mixed on 25 July 2025, with semiconductor and EV stocks showing volatility amid AI sector tailwinds and geopolitical news.

1. NVIDIA (NVDA)

Price Action:

Current Price: $173.50 (-0.14% from prior close)

Key Levels:

Resistance: $174.72 (25 July high) → Breakout target: $175–177.50

Support: $172.50 (options-heavy level) → Breakdown risk: $170

Volume Analysis: 122.3M shares traded (0.83x 30-day avg), with bearish capital outflow ($262M net outflow on 24 July).

Options Sentiment:

High open interest in $175 CALLs (28,000+ contracts) expiring 1 Aug, offering 42.9% PoP.

IV at 70.7% for near-term calls, indicating bullish volatility expectations.

Catalysts:

Strategic partnership with Delta Electronics for AI-driven manufacturing (citation:2).

Short-term risk: Overbought RSI (14-day = 68) after 1.7% weekly gain.

Trade Setup:

Entry: >$173.75 (pre-market momentum)

TP: $175.50 (2% gain)

SL: $172.00 (1% risk)

2. Tesla (TSLA)

Price Action:

Current Price: $316.06 (+3.52% from prior close)

Key Levels:

Resistance: $323.63 (25 July high) → Breakout target: $330

Support: $308.01 (25 July low) → Critical floor: $300

Volume Analysis: 148.2M shares (1.49x avg), with bullish capital inflow ($1.64B big inflow on 25 July).

Options Sentiment:

Heavy volume in $320 CALLs (26,000+ contracts) expiring 1 Aug, 36.7% PoP.

IV at 48.5% for Aug 1 calls, reflecting moderate volatility.

Catalysts:

Dominated Chinese EV assisted-driving tests (citation:1).

Robotaxi rollout hype ahead of Q2 earnings (citation:17).

Trade Setup:

Entry: >$318 (pre-market gap-up)

TP: $323.50 (1.7% gain)

SL: $312 (2% risk)

3. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Price Action:

Current Price: $166.47 (+2.68% from prior close)

Key Levels:

Resistance: $167.18 (25 July high) → Breakout target: $170

Support: $162.36 (25 July low) → Critical floor: $160

Volume Analysis: 53.4M shares (1.18x avg), with bullish momentum (6% weekly gain).

Options Sentiment:

Concentrated open interest in $170 CALLs (14,700+ contracts) expiring 1 Aug, 35.9% PoP.

IV at 44.0%, suggesting lower volatility than peers.

Catalysts:

CEO Lisa Su flagged TSMC’s US chip costs (+5–20%), signaling margin pressures (citation:4).

AI chip demand surge from China (TrendForce projection, citation:5).

Trade Setup:

Entry: >$167 (break above resistance)

TP: $169.50 (1.5% gain)

SL: $164 (1.8% risk)

Key Risks:

NVDA/AMD: Sector-wide sensitivity to US-China AI trade policies.

TSLA: High short interest (9.92% short volume on 24 July) could amplify downside.

Macro: Fed rate decision impact on growth stocks (30 July FOMC).