Check out this momentum strategy with an 85% win rate—
Recent positive catalysts for $Apple(AAPL)$ :
Significant acceleration in total company revenue, iPhone revenue, and Mac revenue in Q3;
Issued strong guidance for mid-to-high single-digit growth in Q4;
Healthy inventory levels, with management still seeing strong demand momentum;
Q3 earnings reveal increased capital expenditures and operating expenses, with ramped-up AI investment;
The US announced a 100% tariff on semiconductors and chips, but offers exemptions for companies building or committing to build plants in the US;
Apple raised its commitment for US domestic investment over the next four years to $600 billion;
2025 full-year iPhone EMS production plan increased from 235 million units to 247 million units;
Evaluation:
Q3 earnings were healthy, with no major negatives;
Tariff risk has been resolved;
Building in the US puts Apple in a favorable position compared to hardware peers;
Positive catalysts are gradually being realized, but the stock price is still relatively low;
Target price of $220 based on a ~28x multiple of projected 2026/2027 EPS of $7.91.
Trading strategy:
If you currently hold Apple shares and are concerned about the stock consolidating at high levels, you can sell out-of-the-money call options to earn some premium during this phase;
If you want to chase Apple’s upside but are worried about getting caught at the top, consider selling out-of-the-money put options.
Reference strikes and expiries:
Covered call strategy: $AAPL 20250815 230.0 CALL$ (87% win rate)
Put selling strategy: $AAPL 20250815 210.0 PUT$ (85% win rate)
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