At the end of July, Firefly Aerospace $Firefly Aerospace Inc.(FLY)$ , the first private aerospace unicorn to land on the Moon, officially launched its IPO under the ticker FLY. Since debuting on Nasdaq last Thursday, the stock has been on a wild ride—soaring more than 60% in just two trading days before tumbling back close to its starting point.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Who is Firefly?
Firefly Aerospace is a US-based private space company providing medium- and small-lift rocket launches and lunar lander services for both government and commercial clients. In March this year, its self-developed uncrewed spacecraft Blue Ghost successfully completed a NASA-contracted lunar mission, operating steadily on the Moon’s surface for 14 days. This achievement made Firefly the first US private company to achieve a soft lunar landing, catapulting it into the public spotlight. Compared with rocket launch giants like SpaceX and Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ , Firefly focuses more on exploring commercial opportunities in the lunar market.
Source: Firefly Prospectus
But the road hasn’t been smooth. Founded in 2014 with ambitions in the small-satellite launch “blue ocean” market, Firefly hit trouble within two years when major investors pulled out, losses piled up, and it was sued by Virgin Galactic for alleged trade secret theft. The combined pressure forced the company to declare bankruptcy. In 2017, it was acquired and recapitalized with $200 million by a Ukrainian entrepreneur’s firm, and pivoted from offering only rocket launches to building a full lunar services platform: Alpha launch vehicle + Elytra spacecraft + Blue Ghost lunar lander. Later, for security reasons, the US government required Ukrainian ownership to exit, bringing Firefly back under American control—an important step that paved the way for winning major NASA lunar contracts.
Source: Firefly Prospectus
Strengths and Risks
Firefly has carved out a niche in lunar exploration and already secured more than $1.1 billion in contracts from NASA and the US Department of Defense. This includes 30 Alpha rocket launches, NASA lunar delivery services, and a 2029 mission to the Moon’s south pole. The government and NASA also provide some funding during project execution. Completing its first NASA lunar mission should help Firefly win further trust and more orders. While its business is still in early commercialization, the combination of “technology leadership + government-backed contracts” is forming a compelling growth story.
The challenge is justifying a $7+ billion valuation given its finances. In 2024, Firefly generated only $60.79 million in revenue but booked a $230 million loss. In Q1 2025, revenue surged to $55.9 million—almost matching the previous year’s total—but quarterly losses still exceeded $60 million. Losses have not narrowed despite revenue growth. By comparison, Rocket Lab generates over $400 million in annual revenue with $200 million in losses, making Firefly’s burn rate look much heavier, with profitability still far off. The good news: its IPO raised more than $800 million, enough to pay off expensive debt and fund operations and expansion, supporting its long-term growth thesis. Still, the valuation is fragile—if investor focus shifts back to profitability, Firefly’s market value could face sharp cuts.
Source: Firefly Prospectus
IPO Details and Market Performance
After its lunar mission grabbed headlines, Firefly wasted no time and launched its IPO just months later. It offered 16.2 million shares, initially priced in the $35–$39 range, targeting about $697 million in proceeds and a $5.5 billion valuation. Strong demand—over 10 times the shares on offer—pushed the IPO price up to $45, raising $868 million and lifting its valuation above $7 billion.
On debut, the stock opened at $70—a 55.6% jump—and briefly touched $74 before falling back. By last Friday, it was down 17% for the day, closing near $50, just 10% above the IPO price. The sharp swing mirrored newly listed Figma $Figma(FIG)$ , which surged from its $33 IPO price to over $140 (a fourfold gain) before plunging to around $76 within days.
Fueled by strong post-IPO performances from names like CoreWeave $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ and Circle $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ earlier this year, the US IPO market is running hot, with signs of speculative chasing. Both Figma and Firefly saw valuation spikes beyond rational levels, followed by swift reversals. While the IPO pipeline will likely stay busy this year, the lessons from these two high-profile swings could temper some of the more irrational buying.
Invesight Viewpoint
Firefly’s story is a prime example of how breakthroughs in commercial spaceflight and market hype can push valuations to irrational heights in a short time. Excitement around tech darlings is understandable, but it must be grounded in realistic assessments of fundamentals and growth potential. When prices are driven mainly by sentiment, sharp and sudden corrections are often just around the corner.
Comments