1PC
08-12
Circle Q2: Revenue Rockets šŸš€, EPS Misses the Mark šŸ¤”ā€”What’s the Trade?
Circle (CRCL) just dropped Q2 earnings and the market gave it a thumbs-up—shares popped 5% in premarket. But the numbers need decoding:
• 🧮 EPS: $4.48 vs. $0.34 consensus—but don’t cheer too fast. That beat was inflated by IPO-related accounting quirks (non-cash charges of $591M).
• šŸ’° Revenue: $658M (+53% YoY) beat by $13M. That’s the real win—driven by USDC growth, infra deals, and expanding institutional adoption.
• šŸ“ˆ Price Action: CRCL is up 91% since IPO. Volatility’s spicy—weekly swings average 24.8%.
• šŸ“Š Valuation: Trading near $159. Fair value estimates range $122–175. DCF models suggest it’s 20–30% overvalued short term.
• āš™ļø Catalysts: GENIUS Act, bank charter push, and stablecoin tailwinds could fuel long-term upside.
🧠 Trade Setup
If CRCL holds above $150 with volume, bulls may stay in control. But if it dips toward $130–140, that’s where I’d look to accumulate. Growth is real—but price needs to digest the hype.
šŸ”„ Bottom Line
Revenue beat > EPS miss. The market’s betting on Circle’s infrastructure moat and stablecoin dominance. Just don’t chase—let the chart speak first.[Call]
Circle Dumping Risk? Cash Out at $150 or Time to Bottom?
Circle beats revenue but fell as it 5% as it files to sell 10M shares of Class A common stock. Circle reported a net loss of $482 million in the second quarter, compared with a $33 million profit a year ago. Revenue increased by 53% to $658 million, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $646 million.
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