JD Q2 Earnings—A Simple Guide to Trading the Results

$JD.com(JD)$ Q2 2025 Earnings Expectations:

• Core retail business remains solid, with growth rates steady or slightly below Q1;

• Food delivery business is seriously weighing on near-term profit outlook;

• Analysts expect Q2 adjusted net profit to fall to RMB 3.6–4.4 billion, with Q3–Q4 rebounding to RMB 7–9 billion;

• Thanks to food delivery, JD App Q2 daily active users rose 27%–45% year-over-year.

How to Interpret the Earnings Preview:

• While food delivery is a short-term drag, it could drive long-term traffic and revenue growth;

• Valuation is extremely low, so downside risk is limited;

• The market is waiting for a clear sign that profits have bottomed out;

• Main risk: JD may invest far more in food delivery than the market expects;

• Implied earnings move is about 6%, with a trading range of 30–34.

Trading Strategy:

• Major negatives are known, with no major positives; earnings are likely to be stable or possibly retest the bottom;

• If you hold the stock, you can hedge by selling out-of-the-money call options.

Reference Strike and Expiry for Covered Call:

• Covered call strategy: $JD 20250815 35.0 CALL$  (88% win rate)