$POP MART(09992)$
Pop Mart (9992.HK) just stunned the market. Revenue in H1 2025 rocketed +204.4% YoY to RMB 13.876B, profits soared, and shares exploded past HK$300, gaining nearly 10% in one day.
But here’s the big question investors are wrestling with: is this the start of a consumer mega-story, or are we staring at peak Labubu hype?
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📊 Results With a Twist
On the surface, the numbers scream growth:
Revenue: RMB 13.876B (+204.4% YoY).
Profit: record-breaking, proving scale and pricing power.
Stock: blasted through HK$300 to all-time highs.
Founder Wang Ning didn’t waste the momentum. He upgraded Pop Mart’s full-year revenue goal from RMB 20B → RMB 30B — a jaw-dropping 50% increase in just months.
But what makes this intriguing is the mix:
Labubu dolls — still king, making up 34% of revenue.
New bets in gold jewellery and lifestyle goods — a clear attempt to reduce reliance on one IP.
Push into international markets, especially Asia-Pacific, where cultural resonance with collectibles is strong.
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💡 Why HK$300 Is Such a Flashpoint
The HK$300 level isn’t just a number — it’s a psychological milestone. For bulls, it represents validation that Pop Mart is no longer just a toy company but a Gen-Z lifestyle giant.
But at this level, valuation risk is front and center. With such a premium baked in, Pop Mart is effectively priced as if growth will remain flawless. That’s a tough bar.
Think of it like this: Pop Mart at HK$300 is to HK retail stocks what Tesla was to US EVs in 2021 — adored, fast-growing, but also sitting on expectations that may prove impossible to sustain.
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🔎 The Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull case 🚀:
Gen-Z demand engine is still in overdrive. Collectibles are cultural, not just products.
Diversification playbook (jewellery, lifestyle, global IP) lowers single-product risk.
Community effect — Pop Mart fandom creates stickiness competitors can’t easily copy.
Bear case ⚠️:
Labubu fatigue risk — what if the next IP doesn’t capture the same magic?
Margins under pressure from expansion, marketing, and global scaling.
Valuation ceiling — HK$300+ prices in near-perfection, leaving little cushion for hiccups.
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📈 Bigger Picture: The HK Consumer Rally
Pop Mart isn’t rising in isolation. The HK market has been banking on a consumption revival story, from sportswear names like Li Ning and Anta, to luxury retail. Pop Mart’s surge fits neatly into this theme — but it also raises the question:
Is this the leading edge of a broader consumption wave, or simply the poster child of a narrow hype cycle?
If the rally holds, Pop Mart could be seen as the bellwether for HK consumer confidence. If it cracks, it may signal the limits of the rally.
@TigerWire @TigerEvents @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerStars
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