JIANG_LIM
08-25
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$  

NIO’s run from ~$5.8 to ~$6.5 has been eye-catching, but the technicals are starting to look stretched.

• RSI is above 88 → that’s extreme overbought.

• Volume spike looks like FOMO rather than steady accumulation.

• Support sits around $6.20 and then $6.00. A break could see quick downside.

Yes, ES8 preorder buzz and Fed optimism gave it a lift, but history shows these rallies don’t run forever when the fundamentals (deliveries slowing, still unprofitable) haven’t changed.

Isn’t anybody seeing this?

Nio's new ES8 product technology launch conference and pre-sale information
Nio's new ES8 product technology conference was held. Nio founder Li Bin delivered an opening speech, announcing that the cumulative delivery of ES8 exceeded 93,000 units, becoming the sales champion of Chinese brands' high-end pure electric three-row SUVs. The pre-sale price starts at 416,800 yuan, and the pre-sale price starts at 308,800 yuan when purchased using BaaS battery rental. The new ES8 model includes six-seat and seven-seat seating layouts, with pre-sale prices of 416,800 yuan and 308,800 yuan respectively. Nio provides more than 130,000 charging services for new energy users on the self-driving 318 Sichuan-Tibet Line, of which non-Nio brand users account for 74.05%. Nio's new ES8 model will be officially launched and deliveries will begin in late September 2025.
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Comments

  • fibance
    08-25
    fibance
    The moment it reports that it’s profitable what do you think the price will be?


    It’ll be re-rated to match the market cap of its peers (Xpeng, Li Auto) which is at approx 20-23B. NIO is currently at 13B. How much will the price change to match their market cap?


    Current price movement is in anticipation and expectation of future events.
    • JIANG_LIM: 
      Fair point. If profitability comes, rerating could happen. But until then, it’s still anticipation vs. reality. The market loves to price in the future early, sometimes way too early. Let’s see if NIO can deliver results that match the hype.
  • Astrid Stephen
    08-26
    Astrid Stephen
    Been holding, but you’re right,deliveries and profits still lag. $6.20 support better hold.
  • Athena Spenser
    08-26
    Athena Spenser
    RSI 88? That’s flashing red.FOMO rallies burn fast, NIO’s no exception.
  • fibance
    08-25
    fibance
    You’re not wrong. But markets are seldom rational.
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