Given the updated **current price** of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) at **$157.83** (as provided in the real-time financial data, prioritized over other sources) as of August 25, 2025, and excluding Citron Research analysis as requested, I’ll reevaluate the price estimate for PLTR by Q4 2025 earnings (expected late February 2026). This reevaluation incorporates **current price momentum**, **growth ratios**, **earnings metrics**, and **all available analyst estimates** (excluding Citron). I’ll also address the **highest and lowest analyst price targets** and provide a refined estimate for Q4 2025 earnings, building on the prior analysis but adjusting for the new price and recent data. All prices are in USD.
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### 1. **Current Price and Context (August 25, 2025)**
- **Current Price**: $157.83 (real-time data, close of August 25, 2025; intraday range: $149.47–$159.592).
- **Market Cap**: ~$376.59 billion (2.372 billion shares outstanding).
- **Key Financial Metrics** (from real-time data and web sources):
- **Trailing P/E Ratio**: Not provided (likely high due to low TTM EPS of ~$0.30;).[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)
- **Forward P/E Ratio**: ~499.50 (based on 2025 EPS consensus of ~$0.37;).[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)
- **P/S Ratio**: ~106.77 (TTM sales $3.44 billion; forward ~90x on 2025 revenue estimate of $4.2 billion;).[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)[](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/08/13/prediction-buying-palantir-stock-today-could-set-y/)
- **Revenue Growth**: Q2 2025 revenue up 48% YoY; full-year 2025 consensus ~$4.16 billion (+45% YoY;).[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)
- **EPS Growth**: 2025 consensus EPS $0.65 (up 58% YoY); Q4 2025 estimate $0.19 (up 36% YoY;).[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)
- **Price Momentum** (see finance card above):
- **1-Year Performance**: +400% (from $31.48 in August 2024 to $157.83).
- **1-Month Performance**: Flat/slight decline (-0.04% from $157.8912 on July 28, 2025).
- **Recent Volatility**: Dropped 18% from all-time high of $190 (August 8, 2025), with recent 6-session decline ().[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)
- RSI (Relative Strength Index) not provided but likely ~50-60 (neutral) given recent pullback from overbought levels (~70+ at $190).
- **Market Context**: PLTR’s surge reflects AI hype, strong Q2 2025 results (48% revenue growth, U.S. commercial up 85%+;), and government contract wins. However, high valuation (P/E >500x) raises overvaluation concerns, with short interest at 2.56% signaling some bearish sentiment ().[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)
The finance card above shows PLTR’s meteoric rise but recent consolidation, suggesting a potential pause before Q3 earnings (November 3, 2025) or Q4 catalysts.
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### 2. **Price Momentum Analysis**
- **Historical Trends**: PLTR has shown extreme volatility (beta ~2.6;), with 20-50% rallies post-strong earnings (e.g., Q2 2025 jump from $136.32 in June to $187.71 in August; finance card). The recent 18% pullback from $190 suggests profit-taking but doesn’t negate the bullish trend (200-day moving average ~$100, well below current price).[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)
- **Current Momentum**: The stock is consolidating near $155–$160 after hitting $190. A Q3 beat (expected revenue $1.09 billion, EPS $0.17;) could spark a 15-25% rally, as seen historically. Social sentiment on X remains bullish, with posts highlighting 85%+ U.S. commercial growth ().[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)
- **Catalysts for Q4**: Q4 2025 earnings will cover October–December 2025, with expected revenue of $1.19 billion (+44% YoY) and EPS $0.19 (). New AI contracts (e.g., Palantir’s American Tech Fellowship;) or expanded commercial deals (e.g., Oracle partnership) could drive upside. Risks include macro headwinds (e.g., Fed policy tightening) or profit-taking at elevated valuations.[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)
- **Momentum-Based Estimate**: Assuming a Q3 beat and sustained AI-driven sentiment, PLTR could rally 15-25% from $157.83 by Q4 earnings, targeting **$180–$200**. A bearish scenario (e.g., market correction or guidance cut) could see a 10-20% drop to **$125–$140**.
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### 3. **Growth Ratio Analysis**
- **Revenue Growth**:
- 2025 consensus: $4.16 billion (+45% YoY;), with U.S. commercial growth at 85%+ (). Q4 2025 revenue estimate: $1.19 billion (+44% YoY;).[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)
- 2026 projection: $5.61 billion (+35% YoY;), implying sustained but moderating growth.[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)
- If growth accelerates to 50% in 2026 (bullish, driven by AI adoption), revenue could hit $6 billion+, supporting higher multiples.
- **EPS Growth**:
- 2025 EPS consensus: $0.65 (up 58% YoY;). Q4 2025 EPS: $0.19 (up 36% from $0.14;).[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)
- 2026 EPS: $0.85 (up 31%;). If margins expand to 20%+ (from 9.55% net margin;), EPS could exceed $1.00.[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-12-analyst-ratings-have-say-about-palantir-technologies)
- **Valuation Multiples**:
- **Current P/S**: ~90x forward (2025 revenue $4.16 billion, market cap $376.59 billion). Peers like Snowflake (SNOW) trade at ~20x, Salesforce (CRM) at ~7x, but PLTR’s AI premium justifies 30-50x in bullish scenarios.
- **Forward P/E**: ~243x (2025 EPS $0.65). If growth sustains, P/E could compress to 100-150x by 2026 ($0.85 EPS), implying prices of $85–$127 at current growth, but higher if EPS beats.
- **PEG Ratio**: ~9.81 (), high but reflects 40.8% long-term growth expectations (). A PEG <2 would support $200+ if growth exceeds 50%.[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)[](https://www.zacks.com/stock/research/PLTR/price-target-stock-forecast)
- **Growth-Based Estimate**: Assuming 40-50% revenue growth and P/S of 40-50x (bullish) or 20-30x (conservative), Q4 2025 price ranges from **$160–$240** (market cap $380–$570 billion on $4.8–$5 billion annualized revenue). Base case: **$180**, assuming 45% growth and 40x P/S.
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### 4. **Earnings-Based Analysis**
- **Q3 2025 Expectations (November 3, 2025)**: Revenue $1.09 billion (+50% YoY), EPS $0.17 (up 70% YoY;). PLTR’s history of beating estimates (e.g., Q2 2025 EPS $0.16 vs. $0.14 expected;) suggests a potential +10-15% stock pop on a beat (e.g., $1.12 billion revenue, $0.19 EPS).[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)
- **Q4 2025 Expectations**: Revenue $1.19 billion (+44% YoY), EPS $0.19 (). A strong Q3 could raise Q4 guidance to $1.25 billion and EPS $0.20, driving bullish sentiment.[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)
- **Valuation Using Earnings**:
- Forward EPS (2026): $0.85 (). At 100x P/E (peer-aligned), price = $85 (bearish). At 200x P/E (current premium), price = $170. At 300x P/E (bullish, AI-driven), price = $255.[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)
- DCF Model: Assuming 40% growth for 5 years, 5% terminal, 12% discount rate, and $1.7 billion FCF (46% margin;), fair value ~$180–$200 (market cap $430–$475 billion).
- **Earnings-Based Estimate**: $170–$210, with a base case of **$190** if Q3 and Q4 beat expectations and guidance raises to 50%+ growth.
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### 5. **Analyst Estimates (Excluding Citron)**
Analyst price targets are 12-month forecasts (extending to August 2026), but I’ll contextualize for Q4 2025 earnings (February 2026). Data from web sources (,,,,) covers ~18–23 analysts (e.g., Wedbush, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, RBC Capital). Citron’s bearish short call (,) is excluded as requested.[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)[](https://www.zacks.com/stock/research/PLTR/price-target-stock-forecast)
- **Consensus Overview**:
- **Average Price Target**: $155.78 (18 analysts;) to $152.19 (21 analysts;), implying ~1–4% downside from $157.83.[](https://www.zacks.com/stock/research/PLTR/price-target-stock-forecast)[](https://www.tradingview.com/news/gurufocus:766bfd794094b:0-pltr-palantir-wipes-out-billions-in-market-value-amid-sell-off/)
- **Ratings**: 4 Strong Buy, 16 Hold, 3 Sell (ABR 2.87;). Hold-heavy due to valuation concerns (P/E 520x;).[](https://www.zacks.com/stock/research/PLTR/price-target-stock-forecast)[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)
- **Recent Upgrades**: Post-Q2 2025 (August 5), analysts raised targets (e.g., Wedbush $160→$200, HSBC $111→$181, Goldman $90→$141;), reflecting AI and commercial strength.[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
- **Highest Estimates** (Bullish):
- **$200.00** – Wedbush (Dan Ives, Strong Buy, August 5, 2025;). Rationale: AI leadership, 50%+ commercial growth, 40x P/S. Implies +27% upside from $157.83.[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
- **$181.00** – HSBC (Stephen Bersey, Hold, August 6, 2025;). Sees government AI contracts expanding; +15% upside.[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
- **$180.00** – Loop Capital (Mark Schappel, Buy, August 5, 2025;). Targets 35x P/S on $5 billion 2026 revenue.[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
- **$180.00** – BofA Securities (M. Armstrong, Hold, August 5, 2025;). Upgraded from $150 on commercial traction.[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
- **$177.00** – Citigroup (Tyler Radke, Hold, August 5, 2025;). Reflects Q2 beat but cautious on P/E.[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
- **Lowest Estimates** (Bearish):
- **$45.00** – RBC Capital (Rishi Jaluria, Strong Sell, August 5, 2025;). Rationale: Overvalued at 90x P/S; expects growth to slow to 20–25% by 2026. Implies -71% downside.[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
- **$84.00** – William Blair (Louie DiPalma, Market Perform, June 2025;). Cites stock comp dilution; -47% downside.[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-12-analyst-ratings-have-say-about-palantir-technologies)
- **$94.00** – Mizuho (Matthew Broome, Underperform, July 2025;). Sees competition from Big Tech; -40% downside.[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-12-analyst-ratings-have-say-about-palantir-technologies)
- **$100.00** – DA Davidson (Gil Luria, Neutral, May 2025;). Targets 20x P/S; -37% downside.[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-12-analyst-ratings-have-say-about-palantir-technologies)
- **$110.00** – UBS (Karl Keirstead, Neutral, August 5, 2025;). Conservative on macro risks; -30% downside.[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-12-analyst-ratings-have-say-about-palantir-technologies)
- **Analyst Range**: $45.00 (RBC Capital) to $200.00 (Wedbush). The wide spread reflects PLTR’s polarizing valuation—bulls see AI-driven upside; bears see a bubble (P/E 520x, PEG 9.81;).[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)
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### 6. **Reevaluated Price Estimate for Q4 2025 Earnings**
Combining momentum, growth, earnings, and analyst estimates (weighted ~50% to fundamentals, 30% to momentum, 20% to consensus), here’s the updated projection for February 2026:
- **Base Case**: **$180** (+14% from $157.83). Assumes:
- Q3 2025 beat (revenue $1.12 billion, EPS $0.19).
- Q4 guidance raise to $1.25 billion (+50% YoY) and EPS $0.20.
- P/S compresses to 40x (on $4.8 billion annualized revenue), implying market cap ~$430 billion.
- Forward P/E ~200x on 2026 EPS $0.90, aligning with Wedbush’s bullish view ($200).
- **Bull Case**: **$210–$230** (+33–46% upside). Requires:
- Q3/Q4 beats with 50%+ revenue growth (e.g., $1.3 billion Q4 revenue).
- P/S 50x or P/E 250x, driven by major AI contracts (e.g., government or commercial megadeals;).
- Sustained momentum (20–30% rally post-Q3).
- **Bear Case**: **$120–$140** (-12 to -24% downside). Triggered by:
- Q3 miss (e.g., revenue <1.08 billion) or weak Q4 guidance (<30% growth).
- P/S compression to 20–25x (peer-like), implying market cap $240–$300 billion.
- Macro risks (e.g., tech sell-off) or competition concerns ().[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-12-analyst-ratings-have-say-about-palantir-technologies)
**Rationale for Base Case ($180)**:
- PLTR’s 48% Q2 growth and 85%+ U.S. commercial growth () support sustained 40–50% revenue increases, justifying a premium P/S of 40x.
- Analyst upgrades post-Q2 (e.g., Wedbush to $200, HSBC to $181;) align with momentum, but consensus ($155.78) is conservative due to bears like RBC ($45).[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
- Recent pullback from $190 to $157.83 suggests a floor at ~$150 (support level; finance card), with upside to $200 if Q3 catalysts hit.
- High P/E (520x) is a risk, but forward P/E of 200x on $0.90 EPS (2026) supports $180.
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### 7. **Highest and Lowest Analyst Estimates**
- **Highest**: **$200.00** (Wedbush, August 5, 2025;). Reflects AI dominance and 50%+ growth potential. +27% upside from $157.83.[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
- **Lowest**: **$45.00** (RBC Capital, August 5, 2025;). Assumes valuation reset to 20x P/S and growth slowdown to 20%. -71% downside.[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
- **Consensus**: $155.78 (18 analysts;), slightly below current price (-1.3%), but skewed by bears. Bullish targets ($177–$200) are more relevant given recent performance.[](https://www.zacks.com/stock/research/PLTR/price-target-stock-forecast)
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### 8. **Key Assumptions and Risks**
- **Bullish Drivers**: Strong Q3/Q4 earnings beats, AI platform (AIP) adoption, U.S. commercial growth >80%, new government contracts, and margin expansion (46% FCF margin;).
- **Bearish Risks**: Valuation compression (P/S <30x), growth deceleration (<30%), competition from Big Tech (e.g., MSFT, AMZN), insider selling ($196 million in Q2;), or macro downturn (e.g., post-election budget cuts).[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)
- **Data Sources**: Real-time financial data (prioritized), web sources (,,,,), X posts for sentiment (,). Analyst targets updated post-Q2 2025.[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
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### 9. **Final Answer**
For Q4 2025 earnings (late February 2026):
- **Estimated Price**: **$180** (base case, +14% from $157.83).
- **Range**: $120–$230 (bear: -24%, bull: +46%).
- **Analyst High**: $200 (Wedbush, +27%).
- **Analyst Low**: $45 (RBC Capital, -71%).
The finance card above illustrates PLTR’s strong upward trend but recent consolidation, supporting the $180 base case if Q3 momentum holds. For real-time updates or personalized advice, consult a financial advisor. This is not investment advice.[](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/)[](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/PLTR/report)
Generated by Grok and this is after refining the search. Citron and other short sellers are feeding AI with bear cases. Unless you know and ask AI to exclude Citron case, you will get the $45 price. I am ignoring noises, using call options to earn premium and using premium to buy for shares. I have increased my monthly SGD 500 to USD 3000 into pltr. I am not backing down until pltr stops growing exponentially.
Rule of 40 has been a good indicator for outperformers. I hope more investor can look into it. I will do my own homework too!
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