My take: The public-market winners in crypto look like regulated picks-and-shovels: fiat ramps, stablecoin rails, and tokenization plumbing.

Gemini: exchange + custody + compliance DNA—key is fee take-rate durability and jurisdictions.

Figure: on-chain lending + securitization; the question is cost of capital vs. traditional rails and true capital-markets adoption.

Next Circle - playbook: audited reserves, regulator-friendly footprint, net interest on float, and enterprise partnerships.

What I’m grading: proof of profitability through cycles, attested reserves, regulatory clarity, and concentration risk (one geo, one partner).

Trade plan: If/when they list, wait for first earnings and lockup calendar; price quality at a discount to fintech comps unless growth + margins justify a premium.

Risk: rule changes, bank partner concentration, stablecoin spread compression.

One-liner: “The next Circle isn’t ‘degen’; it’s a boring, cash-printing, regulator-approved money-plumbing machine.”