π Does the Dollar Index (DXY) Lead Bitcoin?
1. Inverse Correlation
β’ When the U.S. dollar strengthens (DXY goes up), global liquidity tightens, and risk assets like Bitcoin often fall.
β’ When the dollar weakens (DXY goes down), capital tends to flow into non-dollar assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and commodities.
2. Leading Indicator?
β’ DXY is not a perfect leading indicator, but it often reacts quickly to interest rates and liquidity conditions.
β’ This can make it appear to move ahead of Bitcoin.
β’ Example: In 2022, U.S. rate hikes β DXY surged first β Bitcoin dropped heavily weeks later.
β’ But Bitcoin also has idiosyncratic drivers (ETF flows, miner selling, regulations, adoption news), so it doesnβt always follow DXY.
3. Practical Use
β’ Traders often watch for trend reversals in DXY as a potential signal for Bitcoin turning points.
β’ Example: If DXY peaks (e.g., 105β110 range) and rolls over, Bitcoin has higher odds of rebounding.
β’ If DXY bounces from a bottom, Bitcoin might face downside pressure.
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