Semiconductors & Chips
NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSM, MU
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
Key News:
AMD secures multi-billion dollar chip supply deal with OpenAI, granting a 10% stock option; projected to generate over $100 billion in revenue over four years.
NVDA shares down 2% in pre-market trading.
Options Analysis:
Market anticipates significant short-term volatility for NVDA, but shows stronger bullish sentiment one week out, with a wider expected range.
Oct 10: Expected range $179 - $195. Current IV ~40%. High IV indicates expectations for substantial price movement in the next 4 days.
Oct 17: Expected range $174 - $200. IV slightly lower ~38%, but longer timeframe leads to a wider range.
Massive open interest in Oct 17 calls indicates market optimism for further upside potential, possibly testing the $200 level.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $NVDA 20251010 170.0 PUT$ , OI 86312 (High liquidity), Probability of Profit (ITM Prob) 6.88%, Win Rate ≈ 93.12%
Sell Put $NVDA 20251017 170.0 PUT$ , OI 82176 (High liquidity), Probability of Profit (ITM Prob) 11.20%, Win Rate ≈ 88.80%
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$
Key News:
Secured multi-billion dollar chip supply deal with OpenAI, granting a 10% stock option; projected to generate over $100 billion in revenue over four years.
Shares up 27% in pre-market trading.
Options Analysis:
AMD options data indicates clearly bullish sentiment in both short and medium term (Call/Put OI ratio > 3:1).
However, Implied Volatility above 50% signals expectations for sharp price swings.
Based on options flow and institutional forecasts, short-term upside targets may cluster in the $170 - $184.58 range.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $AMD 20251010 185.0 PUT$
$Intel(INTC)$
Key News:
YTD gain of 83.7%, closed Friday at $36.83, hitting a new high since 2022, driven by Nvidia partnership expectations and AI strategy.
Options Analysis:
Market expects near-term gains but high volatility warns of risk. Price expected to see intense battle between key $35 and $40 levels.
Oct 10: Theoretical range $33.6 - $40.0.
Given heavy option positioning between $35-$40, price action likely confined to this range.
$35 is key support; $40 is major resistance.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $INTC 20251010 35.0 PUT$ , Strike $35.0 below recent support ($35-$37), Win Rate ~77.68%
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$
Key News:
YTD gain of 74% to $185.20, reaching all-time high, driven by AI chip demand and US expansion plans.
Options Analysis:
TSM market sentiment is relatively neutral, with Call and Put OI concentrated at similar strikes, indicating disagreement between bulls and bears.
Oct 10: Based on volatility, expected range $278 - $306.
Heavy option OI between $280-$300 defines key support/resistance; price likely to oscillate within this band.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $TSM 20251017 280.0 PUT$ , High OI (1813), good liquidity; Strike $280 near short-term support, high win rate (Delta ≈ -0.304)
$Micron Technology(MU)$
Key News:
Morgan Stanley upgrades to "Overweight", raises target to $220; average analyst target $191.17.
Options Analysis:
Market is bullish, but high volatility is a double-edged sword. Price likely to fluctuate widely between $168-$207; investors should be wary of large swings.
Week of Oct 10: Expected range $176-$199. High IV amplifies short-term moves.
Week of Oct 17: Expected range $168-$207. Longer time frame increases potential range under high IV.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $MU 20251010 175.0 PUT$ , Strike $175 at lower bound of Oct 10 range ($176.33), OI 1765 (decent liquidity); Delta=-0.17 (Win Rate ~83%)
Internet Consumer & Cloud Computing
AAPL, ORCL, AMZN, META, CRWV, BABA, PLTR
$Apple(AAPL)$
Key News:
Jefferies downgrades to "Underperform" citing high iPhone upgrade cycle expectations.
Major executive shakeup imminent; COO Jeff Williams has stepped down from operations role; CEO Cook potentially facing succession.
Options Analysis:
Market view on AAPL is relatively stable, lacking panic or extreme euphoria.
Price expected to trade moderately within $248-$268; $250-$260 is the core battle zone.
Oct 10: Expected range $251-$265. Lower IV limits daily price swings.
Oct 17: Range widens to $248-$268. Longer timeframe naturally expands cumulative movement even with modest volatility.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $AAPL 20251010 250.0 PUT$ , OI 11758 (High liquidity), Strike $250 near short-term support, high win rate.
$Oracle(ORCL)$
Key News:
OpenAI Developer Conference on October 6th.
Options Analysis:
Market sentiment is divided: Bulls betting on push to $290-$300, Bears focusing on $260-$280 support.
Oct 10: Expected range $271 - $301. Elevated IV significantly amplifies potential short-term swings.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $ORCL 20251010 270.0 PUT$ , Win Rate 80%
$Amazon(AMZN)$
Key News:
Odyssey Capital CIO Jason Snipe bullish on AWS acceleration, believes cloud will drive next phase.
Harrell Investment Partners increased stake by 36.1% to 43,168 shares in Q2, showing institutional confidence in e-commerce/cloud synergy.
Founder Bezos emphasizes AI investment value, stating it will "change all industries," aligning with recent Alexa upgrades and smart device launches.
Goldman Sachs raises target to $275; institutional holdings increasing.
Options Analysis:
AMZN options data suggests neutral-to-cautious sentiment. Total Call and Put OI are similar.
AMZN likely to oscillate around current price, but downside risk (towards $211) is more noted than upside (towards $227); action could be choppy.
Short-term (Oct 10): $211 - $227, based on ~34.5% IV. This is the market's expected most likely (~68% prob) trading range.
Medium-term (Oct 17): $206 - $232
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $AMZN 20251010 210.0 PUT$ , OTM PUT ($210.0 Strike) has high IV (38.29%), attractive premium; lower bound of short-term range is $211.5, high win rate.
Sell Call $AMZN 20251010 225.0 CALL$ , Short-term range upper bound $227.5, $225.0 Strike near upper bound, high win rate; suitable for investors holding AMZN shares for yield enhancement.
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
Key News:
Ray-Ban Display smart glasses sold out offline; trial appointments fully booked until November, indicating strong consumer AI hardware demand.
Options Analysis:
Short-term potential for wide swings within $700-$740; sentiment leans bullish (Call/Put OI ratio 1.81).
Short-term (Oct 10): $680 - $742. Market focus: key support near $700, resistance near $740.
Medium-term (Oct 17): $660 - $762. Range lows/highs correspond to key OI concentrations for Puts/Calls.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $META 20251010 700.0 PUT$ , Strike $700 below current price, Win Rate 27.87%, IV 38.60%偏高, relatively thick premium.
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$
Key News:
DCF model suggests stock remains undervalued by 33.2%, but executive sale of 3.1 million shares raises short-term volatility concerns.
Options Analysis:
CRWV options data shows clear optimism (Call/Put OI ratio 2.49).
Market generally bullish on CRWV rise, but low volatility expectations suggest a grinding move within $120-$148 rather than a sharp spike.
Short-term (Oct 10): $121 - $148. Heavy Call OI concentrated at $135-$150 indicates resistance zone.
Medium-term (Oct 17): $112 - $156
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $CRWV 20251010 120.0 PUT$ , Strike $120 below Oct 10 lower bound ($121.52), high win rate (Delta -0.154, Win Rate ~84.6%), attractive premium when IV is low.
$Alibaba(BABA)$
Key News:
Institution Janney Montgomery Scott increased stake by 35.2% to 69,245 shares in Q2, showing growing confidence.
Options Analysis:
BABA options data indicates slightly bullish sentiment (Call/Put OI ratio 1.53).
Market cautiously optimistic on BABA, but high IV suggests a bumpy ride towards $195; watch for pullback risk to $170 support.
Oct 10: $173 - $202. Theoretical range based on high IV (51%) implies ~±8% move.
Practical Focus Range: $170 - $195.
Heavy OI concentrations near $170 (Put support) and $180-$190 (Call targets) form the core battle zone; price more likely to fluctuate within this range.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $BABA 20251017 175.0 PUT$ , Strike $175 at lower end of Put OI concentration, low IV (27.39%), high win rate (21.63% prob of loss)
Sell Put $BABA 20251010 185.0 PUT$ , Strike $185 near current price ($188.03), low IV (44.81%), high win rate (24.97% prob of loss)
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
Key News:
Partnership with OneMedNet to use its AI platform for medical data analysis transformation.
BridgePort Financial increased stake 221.7% to 7,991 shares, Kercheville Advisors increased 64.1% to 23,590 shares in Q2, showing continued institutional accumulation.
Market highly sensitive to November Q3 earnings; current forward P/E 245 far exceeds industry average 24; revenue miss could trigger sharp volatility.
Options Analysis:
PLTR options data shows intense battle between bulls and bears, with large Call and Put OI at similar strikes (e.g., $170).
PLTR price likely to see sharp swings between $160-$185 short-term, direction unclear; key is breaking $180 or breaking $160.
Short-term (Oct 10): $160 - $185. High IV supports wide swings. Heavy Put OI at $160 provides support; heavy Call OI at $180-$190 creates resistance.
Medium-term (Oct 17): $165 - $180. Mid-term IV expectations slightly lower, and battle focus tightens near $170, narrowing expected range.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $PLTR 20251010 160.0 PUT$ , OI 11033 (Good liquidity), IV 77.85% (High premium), expecting price unlikely to break $160.
Electric Vehicles (EV)
TSLA, NIO
$Tesla(TSLA)$
Key News:
Official teaser for Oct 7 new product launch; market expects a $25k low-price Model Y.
Shares up 22% over past month, but Fortis Capital significant reduction indicates divergence on high valuation (forward P/E 72) and Q3 earnings (Oct 22).
Technical indicators show short-term overbought; new product pricing strategy key to breaking current consolidation.
Options Analysis:
TSLA options data suggests slightly bullish short-term sentiment (Call/Put OI ratio 1.14).
Extremely high Implied Volatility (~62%) indicates market expects very sharp, large swings in the coming week.
Oct 10: $402 - $457. Heavy positioning by both sides near the $430 ATM strike suggests fierce battle.
Oct 17: $385 - $474. Longer timeframe widens range. IV expectation slightly lower but remains high, supporting wide swings.
Price could move towards $457, but also potentially retest $402 support; investors should buckle up.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $TSLA 20251010 400.0 PUT$
If Price ≥ $400, Profit = $3.05/share (Prob ~85%, as $400 below 1σ lower bound $402.33)
High IV (66.30%), attractive premium; OI 12,395 (Sufficient liquidity)
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$
Key News:
Q3 2025 deliveries reached 87,071 units, up 41% YoY, record high, with significant contribution from new brand ONVO L90.
Market watches if strategic pricing can sustain market share growth.
Options Analysis:
NIO options data suggests slightly bullish short-term sentiment (Call OI slightly > Put), but intense battle in the $7.0-$8.0 range.
High Implied Volatility (~80%)预示着sharp price swings.
Oct 10: $7.0 - $8.0. Core battle zone. Heavy Put OI at $7.0 support; heavy Call OI at $8.0 resistance.
Oct 17: $6.5 - $8.5. Market focus: support shifts down to $6.5, resistance up to $8.5.
NIO price likely to swing widely between $7-$8 short-term. With high IV, breaking $8 or breaking $7 is key for direction.
Options Strategy Reference:
Simultaneously Sell $NIO 20251010 7.5 CALL$ and Sell $NIO 20251010 7.5 PUT$
If NIO < $7.5 - $0.58 = $6.92 or > $7.5 + $0.58 = $8.08, Loss = ( $7.5 - Expiry Price ) - $0.58 or ( Expiry Price - $7.5 ) - $0.58
If NIO between $6.92 - $8.08, Profit = Total Premium $0.58 (Win Rate ~60%)
Medium risk, suitable for neutral strategy expecting decreased volatility, bears risk of large moves.
FinTech
HOOD, COIN, CRCL
$Robinhood(HOOD)$
Key News:
Current focus: Zero-commission model faces regulatory pressure and intensifying competition.
Fluctuating crypto trading revenue share impact on profit structure.
Technical show price still below 200-day MA; needs break key resistance for trend reversal confirmation.
Options Analysis:
HOOD options data suggests neutral-to-cautious sentiment. Elevated Implied Volatility (~70%)预示着potential for large moves.
Heavy Call OI at $150, but even denser Put hedging OI at $140 indicates investor concern at current levels.
Oct 10: $138 - $158. $140 is key Put support; $150 is primary Call target.
Oct 17: $130 - $166. $130 is stronger support; upside potential extends to $166.
Price likely to see intense battle in $140-$150 core range before choosing direction.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $HOOD 20251010 140.0 PUT$ , OI 16364 (High liquidity), Strike near 1σ lower bound ($138.7), high win rate (Prob ~66.7%)
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$
Key News:
Bitcoin hits new all-time high $125,750, directly boosting exchange volume & fee revenue expectations.
Stablecoin regulatory progress (e.g., HKMA coin collection plan) may strengthen compliant platform advantages.
Trump commemorative coin controversy shows potential political impact on crypto markets; monitor policy volatility risks.
Options Analysis:
COIN options data indicates strongly bullish sentiment (Call OI far exceeds Put).
High Implied Volatility (~73%) indicates expectations for large price swings.
Oct 10: $351 - $409. Market focus centers on $380-$400 resistance zone, but high volatility could lead to tests of support.
Oct 17: $337 - $423. Bullish sentiment could push price to test higher levels.
Market broadly betting on COIN rise, but high IV implies a bumpy path. Short-term fierce battle likely near $380, but medium-term potential to test $423.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Put $COIN 20251010 370.0 PUT$ , Strike $370 below current price ($380.02), OTM, high win rate (Delta=-0.359, Prob of Profit ~28%)
$Circle Internet Corp(CRCL)$
Key News:
Rothschild & Co Redburn initiates coverage with Neutral rating; consensus target $170.64, reflecting balanced view on USDC growth vs. regulatory risk.
Oppenheimer highlights potential in non-US dollar instrument demand & B2B payments, but Q2 EPS loss of $4.48 shows profitability model needs validation.
Options Analysis:
CRCL options data suggests overall bullish bias (Call OI higher).
Extremely high Implied Volatility (>100%) indicates expectations for exceptionally sharp, large swings.
Oct 10: $130 - $161. Based on extreme IV. Implies potential for >±10% move in just 4 days.
Oct 17: $122 - $169. Longer expiry widens potential range further.
Market is optimistic on CRCL, but extreme IV is a core feature. Price could attempt rises but also experience significant pullbacks; investors must be prepared for severe price fluctuations.
Options Strategy Reference:
Sell Call $CRCL 20251010 145.0 PUT$ , Strong short-term bullish sentiment, low CPR, high premium ($6.6), high win rate (Prob 33.39%).
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