Subject: Why I Just Initiated -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Subject: Why I Just Initiated a High-Conviction, Deep Value Buy in Molina Healthcare (MOH)

I'm opening a 5% position in Molina Healthcare (MOH) after its massive 58% collapse from its 52-week high. This isn't just cheap; it's an extreme valuation disconnect that presents a textbook "Falling Knife" opportunity.

1. The Panic & The Disconnect 📉

The stock price is driven by fear over the Medical Cost Ratio (MCR), which rose due to temporary post-COVID regulatory shifts (Medicaid Redeterminations). The market is pricing this temporary earnings hit as a permanent failure of the business model.

2. The Core Thesis: Extreme Value

We must look past the stock price (Market Cap) to the actual operating business price (Enterprise Value). This is where the deal is undeniable:

The Cash Safety Net: MOH holds approx $4.6 Billion in Net Cash (Cash minus Total Debt). This cash surplus reduces the true cost of buying the company.

The True Price (EV/EBITDA): After adjusting for this cash, the Enterprise Value (EV) is only approx 3.0 Billion. Against its core operating profit (EBITDA), the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of only approx 2.0x

Context: A healthy service business usually trades above 10x. 2.0x is a liquidation price.

3. The Quality Check (Not a Value Trap) 🛡️

This isn't a low-quality stock. MOH is a highly efficient operator, confirmed by its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) consistently above 10%. A high-quality business priced for liquidation is the textbook definition of deep value.

🎯 Strategy: I'm buying the first 5% tranche now to lock in the 2.0x EV/EBITDA multiple. The thesis is simple: When regulatory costs stabilize, the market will re-rate this stock back towards its historical P/E of 17x leading to massive upside.

Primary Risk: Short-term earnings volatility due to the ongoing MCR issue.

#DeepValue #Healthcare #MOH #FallingKnife #InvestmentThesis #PortfolioManagement

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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This isn't just cheap; it's an extreme valuation disconnect that presents a textbook \"Falling Knife\" opportunity.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>1. The Panic &amp; The Disconnect 📉</p>\n<p>The stock price is driven by fear over the Medical Cost Ratio (MCR), which rose due to temporary post-COVID regulatory shifts (Medicaid Redeterminations). The market is pricing this temporary earnings hit as a permanent failure of the business model.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>2. The Core Thesis: Extreme Value</p>\n<p>We must look past the stock price (Market Cap) to the actual operating business price (Enterprise Value). This is where the deal is undeniable:</p>\n<p>The Cash Safety Net: MOH holds approx $4.6 Billion in Net Cash (Cash minus Total Debt). This cash surplus reduces the true cost of buying the company.</p>\n<p>The True Price (EV/EBITDA): After adjusting for this cash, the Enterprise Value (EV) is only approx 3.0 Billion. Against its core operating profit (EBITDA), the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of only approx 2.0x&nbsp;</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Context: A healthy service business usually trades above 10x. 2.0x is a liquidation price.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>3. The Quality Check (Not a Value Trap) 🛡️</p>\n<p>This isn't a low-quality stock. MOH is a highly efficient operator, confirmed by its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) consistently above 10%. A high-quality business priced for liquidation is the textbook definition of deep value.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>🎯 Strategy: I'm buying the first 5% tranche now to lock in the 2.0x EV/EBITDA multiple. The thesis is simple: When regulatory costs stabilize, the market will re-rate this stock back towards its historical P/E of 17x leading to massive upside.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Primary Risk: Short-term earnings volatility due to the ongoing MCR issue.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>#DeepValue #Healthcare #MOH #FallingKnife #InvestmentThesis #PortfolioManagement&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Subject: Why I Just Initiated a High-Conviction, Deep Value Buy in Molina Healthcare (MOH)&nbsp;</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>I'm opening a 5% position in Molina Healthcare (MOH) after its massive 58% collapse from its 52-week high. This isn't just cheap; it's an extreme valuation disconnect that presents a textbook \"Falling Knife\" opportunity.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>1. The Panic &amp; The Disconnect 📉</p>\n<p>The stock price is driven by fear over the Medical Cost Ratio (MCR), which rose due to temporary post-COVID regulatory shifts (Medicaid Redeterminations). The market is pricing this temporary earnings hit as a permanent failure of the business model.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>2. The Core Thesis: Extreme Value</p>\n<p>We must look past the stock price (Market Cap) to the actual operating business price (Enterprise Value). This is where the deal is undeniable:</p>\n<p>The Cash Safety Net: MOH holds approx $4.6 Billion in Net Cash (Cash minus Total Debt). This cash surplus reduces the true cost of buying the company.</p>\n<p>The True Price (EV/EBITDA): After adjusting for this cash, the Enterprise Value (EV) is only approx 3.0 Billion. Against its core operating profit (EBITDA), the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of only approx 2.0x&nbsp;</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Context: A healthy service business usually trades above 10x. 2.0x is a liquidation price.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>3. The Quality Check (Not a Value Trap) 🛡️</p>\n<p>This isn't a low-quality stock. 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This isn't just cheap; it's an extreme valuation disconnect that presents a textbook \"Falling Knife\" opportunity. 1. The Panic & The Disconnect 📉 The stock price is driven by fear over the Medical Cost Ratio (MCR), which rose due to temporary post-COVID regulatory shifts (Medicaid Redeterminations). The market is pricing this temporary earnings hit as a permanent failure of the business model. 2. The Core Thesis: Extreme Value We must look past the stock price (Market Cap) to the actual operating business price (Enterprise Value). This is where the deal is undeniable: The Cash Safety Net: MOH holds approx $4.6 Billion in Net Cash (Cash minus Total Debt). This cash surplus reduces the true cost of buying the company. The True Price (EV/EBITDA): After adjusting for this cash, the Enterprise Value (EV) is only approx 3.0 Billion. Against its core operating profit (EBITDA), the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of only approx 2.0x Context: A healthy service business usually trades above 10x. 2.0x is a liquidation price. 3. The Quality Check (Not a Value Trap) 🛡️ This isn't a low-quality stock. MOH is a highly efficient operator, confirmed by its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) consistently above 10%. A high-quality business priced for liquidation is the textbook definition of deep value. 🎯 Strategy: I'm buying the first 5% tranche now to lock in the 2.0x EV/EBITDA multiple. The thesis is simple: When regulatory costs stabilize, the market will re-rate this stock back towards its historical P/E of 17x leading to massive upside. 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