$ORCL$
If OpenAI’s commercialization engine were truly firing on all cylinders, Oracle’s stock reaction to this earnings report would likely look very different. With the same earnings data, price action tells its own story — and it’s underwhelming.
As a result, whether $ORCL$ becomes a dip-buying opportunity hinges almost entirely on OpenAI’s ability to monetize, or on the emergence of another AI heavyweight with a “killer product” that convinces the market current server capacity is nowhere near enough — positioning Oracle as a future infrastructure winner.
At Thursday’s open, a trader made a precisely timed move, buying 10,000 contracts of the weekly 190P $ORCL 20251212 190.0 PUT$ .
Separately, just before Wednesday’s close, a buyer accumulated 100,000 contracts of the Feb ’26 35C $VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$ , spending roughly $10 million in premium. This kind of positioning typically points to near-term market stress or rising volatility.
Given Oracle’s earnings tone, the AI sector appears vulnerable to leading any broader pullback.
$NVDA$
Wednesday evening saw a large and notable call block: over 20,000 contracts of the 160C $NVDA 20260109 160.0 CALL$ , representing more than $50 million in premium.
While many assume a $50M call block must be bullish, experience suggests otherwise. Large in-the-money call openings often precede sideways or even downward price action, regardless of headline dollar size. The trader isn’t betting on collapse — they can always exercise — but it doesn’t signal upside momentum either.
Ideally, NVDA would close above $180 by Friday. After being dragged lower by Oracle’s earnings reaction, that outcome is now less certain.
AVGO’s earnings don’t offer much relief either.
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Strong results may imply market share pressure on NVIDIA
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Weak results could suggest Google’s AI demand is slowing
Both scenarios introduce downside risk. Still, the working downside floor likely remains above $170.
$AVGO$
The earnings report itself was largely as expected — revenue, profit, and cash flow should all beat consensus. Yet the stock’s reaction remains the wildcard.
Notably:
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No large bearish blocks appeared
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No aggressive bullish blocks either
This suggests the market may have already priced in the 18% rally over the past three weeks, effectively discounting the earnings beat in advance.
$GOOG$ / $GOOGL$
Based on options flow, Google is expected to trade within $300–325 this week. Earnings are unlikely to be disastrous, but a major upside surprise also looks improbable.
Given that range, AVGO’s post-earnings move is likely to stay contained within its implied volatility band, rather than triggering a sector-wide breakout.
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