Why Tesla Can’t Afford to Miss

BrianTycangco鄭彥渊
2025-12-21

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ’s annual free cash flow. This saw a big surge in TTM as of 3Q25 to $6.8B.

But at 235X P/FCF, it needs to grow FCF by 50% per year for the next five years to be even close to reasonably valued (ie 30X P/FCF).

A lot of this hinges on the execution of Elon’s Robotaxi vision.

“We estimate the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

While it’s not clear what “a $1 trillion opportunity” means exactly, Tesla cannot afford any mistakes in order to justify its current stratospheric valuations.

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