Julio Irusta
2025-12-30

Why I’m buying the $MELI "EPS Miss" — 104% Growth in Credit is the Real Story 💳🚀

​The market just gave us a gift. $MELI fell on a short-term EPS miss, but the underlying "Elite" metrics are the strongest Ive seen in years. Here is why I just added it to my portfolio at $2016:

​1. The Fintech Explosion 🏦

The market is worried about "strategic spending," but look at where that money is going. Mercado Pago’s credit card portfolio grew 104% YoY (reaching $4.8B). This isn't just a marketplace anymore; its becoming the largest digital bank in Latin America.

​Monthly Active Users: 72 Million (+29% YoY)

​Total Credit Portfolio: $11.0 Billion (+83% YoY)

​2. The 27-Quarter Streak 📈

MercadoLibre just marked its 27th consecutive quarter of >30% revenue growth. Revenue hit $7.4B (up 39%). Think about that: even at this massive scale, they are still growing like a startup. (Source: Q3 2025 Letter to Shareholders, Page 1).

​3. The Protocol Match (My "Falling Knife" Rule) 🔪

​Quality: ROIC remains elite, and the company is Net Debt Negative (more cash than debt).

​Bargain: At $2016, it is trading at a ~30% discount to its intrinsic value of ~$2,900.

​The "Dip": We are buying a 20% pullback from the June highs despite record-breaking revenue and items sold (Source: Q3 2025 Results).

​Bottom Line: I prioritize Revenue and User Growth over short-term margin compression from logistics investments. $MELI is building a moat that competitors can’t touch.

​#ValueInvesting #FallingKnife #Fintech #Growth #MELI

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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