The Palantir Dilemma: A Tale of 2 Realities

koolgal
01-06

🌟🌟🌟There has never been a stock so polarising, so capable of stirring furious passion and chilling doubt than $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  .  Palantir is a company living 2 lives right now: one of undeniable booming AI success and another shadowed by the grim warning of a "Big Short" legend.

The Shadow of Michael Burry

The spectre of Michael Burry, the man who saw the 2008 market crash, haunts Palantir's valuation.  He has placed a significant short bet against the stock, seeing an "obvious short" in its sky high valuation.

This isn't just a bet against Palantir but against market sanity itself, a chilling whisper that even the brightest stars can suffer a brutal fall when the market corrects.

The Boom of AIP

Yet Palantir is on fire!  Its Artificial Intelligence Platform or AIP is not a dream.  AIP has been winning contracts from the US government to global enterprises.  Palantir's US commercial revenue alone has surged a staggering 121% in Q3 2025.

Customers are not just signing up, they are expanding their use rapidly, proving that the software is mission critical and desperately needed in a data driven world.

The US Government Question

Is Palantir the only choice for the US government?  No.  Competitors are muscling in with companies like $Booz Allen Hamilton(BAH)$ and other emerging players securing massive contracts.  Yet Palantir's deep integration into existing systems and partnerships give it a powerful, defensible moat.  Palantir is a key player but not the only player.

For investors seeking US government exposure at a much more grounded valuation, Booz Allen offers a stark contrast.  As of January 2, 26, Palantir trades at a trailing P/E ratio of around 392.56 while Booz Allen trades at a vastly more conservative P/E ratio of around 12.96.

Booz Allen's AI business grew over 30% in 2025 and it has a massive stable backlog of USD 38 billion.  This offers stability and a 2.6% dividend yield but with a more moderate growth profile.

Analyst Targets and Technical Signals

Analysts remain deeply divided on Palantir's future.  This is reflected in the wide range of price targets and mixed technical signals.

Average Analyst Price Target: The consensus 12 month price target from analysts for Palantir is around USD 172.28, suggesting limited upside from its current price of USD 174.87.

The consensus is a Hold rating with a high rating of USD 255 to a low of USD 100.

Technical Analysis:  Recent technical indicators for Palantir are flashing cautionary signals.  The stock has broken down through support levels around USD 180.  Its 5 day, 50 day and 200 day moving averages all suggest a Strong Sell outlook.  The Relative Strength Index or RSI is in oversold territory, which could signal a potential bounce.  However a potential "Head and Shoulders" formation is also developing, which is a Bearish pattern.

The Ultimate Question : Buy or Bye?

So where does that leave you, the investor?  Are you a believer, embracing the transformative power of AI and the accelerating revenue that defines the future of Palantir?  Or are you a pragmatist, fearing the inevitable reckoning of a stock that trades at stratospheric multiples?

The deep division among experts reflects a high stakes, high emotion play.

Ultimately the answer lies in your own tolerance for a wild, potentially life changing ride ahead for Palantir.

Palantir's "fast and furious" growth profile places it firmly in the speculative category .  It is a Bye for those prioritising a conservative and stable portfolio.

However for those chasing potentially massive returns with significant volatility, Palantir can be viewed as a definitive Buy.

@Tiger_comments  @TigerStars  @Tiger_SG  @TigerClub  @CaptainTiger  

Burry Is Short, AIP Is Booming: Still Holding Palantir?
Palantir gained 140% in 2024 but trades at over 400x trailing P/E. The AI Platform (AIP) drove strong commercial revenue growth and may accelerate further in 2025. Michael Burry holds a large short position against Palantir heading into 2025. The stock fell 5% on the first day of 2026 but then rebounded on Monday overnight trading. Would open-lower but go-higher plot repeat? Is Palantir still the only choice for US government AI solutions? Are you still holding palantir?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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