1.
1. Distribution is already solved
AST doesn’t need to acquire users since they come through carriers like $AT&T Inc(T)$ , $Verizon(VZ)$ , Vodafone, Rakuten and others. That’s billions of subscribers already embedded in the system so focusing on retail signups is the wrong metric when the carriers already own the customer relationship.
2. Coverage Is the Product
AST makes money by filling coverage gaps that networks can’t reach like roaming uplift, emergency access, etc. There is no hardware to subsidize, no dishes to ship and no consumer marketing funnel to fund so applying a consumer telecom playbook here leads to the wrong conclusions.
3. AST Isn't Starlink
Starlink is built like an internet company that sells directly to consumers starting with basic service and slowly adding more features. AST is built to plug directly into existing 4G and 5G networks so phones can make calls, stream video & use data without any new hardware. Both approaches can work but AST is aiming to be the satellite system mobile carriers use behind the scenes instead of sending their customers to Elon.
The AST downgrade follows a familiar sell-side pattern with frontier infrastructure names where they anchor on near-term revenue optics and treating AST like a consumer-facing telecom which is wrong. AST is not a retail business and never intends to be but is a wholesale infrastructure layer that sells coverage to mobile network operators.
2.
2026 is the year space stops being treated as a speculative story & starts being recognized as real infrastructure for the next era of human capability.
• $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ building an end-to-end space logistics
• $Planet Labs Pbc(PL)$ monetizing continuous Earth data from orbit
• $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ turning space into a global cellular network
• $Redwire Corp.(RDW)$ supplying picks-and-shovels of orbital infra
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